{ "ticker": { "uuid": "478925cf-6f69-4c10-81ba-f05548d33405", "symbol": "002800", "name": "Xinjiang Tianshun Supply Chain Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.779, "architecture_energy": 62.684, "architecture_maturity": 45.154, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.53, "rotation_up": 22.32, "upward_expansion": 11.68, "deceleration": 58.05, "rotation_down": 60.34, "downward_expansion": 85.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.492667, 12.874182, 14.444429, 15.847161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.11, "trend_reference": 17.172333, "distance_from_trend": -0.236563, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.821844, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.022474, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.571512, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.212139, "excess_performance": -0.219539, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.236563, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026751, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.022474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.425467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.215715, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.151924, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.212139, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.474974, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14958873, "relative_activity": 0.664408, "balance": 0.474974, "dry_up": 0.941428, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119521, "annualized_volatility": 0.515037, "from_high_reference": -0.490874, "from_low_reference": 0.266667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.172333, "fair_value_reference": 12.821844, "structural_low": 10.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.033538, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": 0.050269, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.279728, "worst_return": -0.075483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.193445, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.187063, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.285546, "worst_return": 0.051351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.19778, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.227405, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.63093, "worst_return": -0.024049, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.857623, "energy": 91.120734, "activity_lines": [ 13.428667, 14.634, 16.276762, 17.149591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.3, "volume": 28321882, "typical_volume": 27294178.45, "trend": 17.448667, "fair_value": 12.795859, "relative_strength": -24.545131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.145675, "energy": 91.122504, "activity_lines": [ 12.936667, 14.026, 15.733762, 16.814989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.42, "volume": 24116161, "typical_volume": 25332651.5, "trend": 17.362, "fair_value": 12.796734, "relative_strength": -29.816063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.106022, "energy": 90.90226, "activity_lines": [ 12.327333, 13.364909, 15.15581, 16.426043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.54, "volume": 17386620, "typical_volume": 23727773.7, "trend": 17.260667, "fair_value": 12.806708, "relative_strength": -21.382248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.015736, "energy": 67.507478, "activity_lines": [ 12.295333, 13.017091, 14.746095, 16.114946 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.11, "volume": 14958873, "typical_volume": 22514602.3, "trend": 17.172333, "fair_value": 12.821844, "relative_strength": -21.571512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.779304, "energy": 62.68368, "activity_lines": [ 12.492667, 12.874182, 14.444429, 15.847161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }