{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47996542-6478-47d8-a571-94da0f7eaedc", "symbol": "AW1I", "name": "UBS MSCI Japan Universal UCITS ETF JPY acc", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.537, "architecture_energy": 34.658, "architecture_maturity": 58.647, "architecture_confidence": 86.482, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.63, "rotation_up": 38.93, "upward_expansion": 66.07, "deceleration": 85.45, "rotation_down": 26.95, "downward_expansion": 16.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.731733, 11.747636, 11.577133, 11.373987 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.032, "trend_reference": 11.1356, "distance_from_trend": 0.080499, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.105051, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.321464, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.463145, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.109145, "excess_performance": 0.044505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080499, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055007, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.321464, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041231, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.054631, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07002, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.109145, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 12.580661, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 803, "relative_activity": 0.176559, "balance": 12.580661, "dry_up": 0.414628, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030432, "annualized_volatility": 0.195078, "from_high_reference": -0.009386, "from_low_reference": 0.306832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.1356, "fair_value_reference": 9.105051, "structural_low": 10.022, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.025057, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.005548, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.08359, "worst_return": -0.041349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.00148, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028097, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152595, "worst_return": -0.065646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.011829, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.059895, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.081887, "worst_return": -0.028118, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.010767, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001288, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066133, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001458, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.090638, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 11.94, "volume": 1214, "typical_volume": 7154.55, "trend": 10.927667, "fair_value": 8.996756, "relative_strength": 11.607045, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.174847, "energy": 84.162636, "activity_lines": [ 11.8896, 11.7372, 11.398124, 11.207166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.392, "volume": 1992, "typical_volume": 7254.05, "trend": 10.9762, "fair_value": 9.0225, "relative_strength": 6.986851, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.701017, "energy": 50.481907, "activity_lines": [ 11.739333, 11.699018, 11.422114, 11.237123 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.636, "volume": 2749, "typical_volume": 7034.2, "trend": 11.032, "fair_value": 9.048224, "relative_strength": 7.653448, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.446403, "energy": 39.581139, "activity_lines": [ 11.678667, 11.701855, 11.468886, 11.27969 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.546, "volume": 1999, "typical_volume": 7027.1, "trend": 11.0844, "fair_value": 9.07491, "relative_strength": 4.271803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 42.719795, "energy": 27.900285, "activity_lines": [ 11.6168, 11.682109, 11.502343, 11.312852 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.032, "volume": 803, "typical_volume": 4548.05, "trend": 11.1356, "fair_value": 9.105051, "relative_strength": 5.463145, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.537011, "energy": 34.658169, "activity_lines": [ 11.731733, 11.747636, 11.577133, 11.373987 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }