{ "ticker": { "uuid": "479f379c-e13b-455c-91d9-4bc3c573b8d3", "symbol": "XVTD", "name": "Xtrackers Vietnam Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 95.84, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.63, "architecture_energy": 54.016, "architecture_maturity": 6.912, "architecture_confidence": 79.905, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.8, "rotation_up": 16.87, "upward_expansion": 28.37, "deceleration": 47.25, "rotation_down": 65.17, "downward_expansion": 51.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.29, 40.067545, 40.834738, 40.627333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 40.09, "trend_reference": 40.552333, "distance_from_trend": -0.011401, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.226399, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28385, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.035414, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.030326, "excess_performance": -0.020909, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011401, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009903, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28385, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.170799, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192786, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.030326, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.225158, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10489, "relative_activity": 1.006231, "balance": 0.225158, "dry_up": 0.732657, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03659, "annualized_volatility": 0.264042, "from_high_reference": -0.09442, "from_low_reference": 0.158671 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.552333, "fair_value_reference": 31.226399, "structural_low": 34.599998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.014493, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.000686, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.165323, "worst_return": -0.036386, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022929, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.002438, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.14391, "worst_return": -0.203426, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.028795, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.095506, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.024151, "worst_return": -0.213054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.276726, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084213, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02314, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.118613, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.168242, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079183, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035371, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059461, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 30.309999, "volume": 4675, "typical_volume": 5857.2, "trend": 27.31325, "fair_value": 35.410208, "relative_strength": 13.326097, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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41.400002, "volume": 6594, "typical_volume": 14348.15, "trend": 40.864667, "fair_value": 31.02281, "relative_strength": -0.529153, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.511046, "energy": 23.495698, "activity_lines": [ 41.716, 41.739546, 41.416905, 41.066699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.68, "volume": 7115, "typical_volume": 13963.25, "trend": 40.866167, "fair_value": 31.084028, "relative_strength": -5.615237, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.974785, "energy": 3.343344, "activity_lines": [ 41.117, 41.305273, 41.323357, 40.990269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.84, "volume": 10816, "typical_volume": 12304.65, "trend": 40.731167, "fair_value": 31.129348, "relative_strength": -11.042458, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.685426, "energy": 45.660504, "activity_lines": [ 39.934, 40.614455, 41.065548, 40.795032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.654999, "volume": 2129, "typical_volume": 11344.95, "trend": 40.613167, "fair_value": 31.173867, "relative_strength": -10.198826, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.758447, "energy": 56.884293, "activity_lines": [ 39.242333, 40.176, 40.886976, 40.661086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.09, "volume": 10489, "typical_volume": 10424.05, "trend": 40.552333, "fair_value": 31.226399, "relative_strength": -7.035414, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.629751, "energy": 54.016038, "activity_lines": [ 39.29, 40.067545, 40.834738, 40.627333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }