{ "ticker": { "uuid": "479fe87f-5878-42bf-a967-bf6df09572ee", "symbol": "315270", "name": "Mirae Asset Tiger 200 Communication Service ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.255, "architecture_energy": 35.384, "architecture_maturity": 46.813, "architecture_confidence": 76.72, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.22, "rotation_up": 23.28, "upward_expansion": 9.0, "deceleration": 60.31, "rotation_down": 47.48, "downward_expansion": 73.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 19945.017448, 19979.762038, 20723.30745, 21223.116524 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20280.0, "trend_reference": 21845.420898, "distance_from_trend": -0.071659, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18925.320181, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.024137, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.096792, "excess_performance": -0.326621, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071659, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015972, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07158, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114906, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.270241, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.195605, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.096792, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.065035, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129995, "relative_activity": 2.046224, "balance": 1.065035, "dry_up": 1.877892, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076355, "annualized_volatility": 0.323028, "from_high_reference": -0.190783, "from_low_reference": 0.099348 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21845.420898, "fair_value_reference": 18925.320181, "structural_low": 18447.296229, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.003139, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.000462, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.123585, "worst_return": -0.140135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.067456, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.009883, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.189976, "worst_return": -0.238387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065241, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.077826, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.142768, "worst_return": -0.283927, "sufficient": true }, 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"2026-08-07", "close": 20280.0, "volume": 129995, "typical_volume": 63529.2, "trend": 21845.420898, "fair_value": 18925.320181, "relative_strength": -27.024137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.255007, "energy": 35.383962, "activity_lines": [ 19945.017448, 19979.762038, 20723.30745, 21223.116524 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }