{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47a810ce-acf8-4e09-bd97-3bd0ef456867", "symbol": "SARO", "name": "StandardAero, Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 71.164, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 27.262, "architecture_energy": 19.084, "architecture_maturity": 17.549, "architecture_confidence": 49.239, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.07, "rotation_up": 45.27, "upward_expansion": 47.93, "deceleration": 39.72, "rotation_down": 28.77, "downward_expansion": 10.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.712, 28.468545, 27.671238, 27.558151 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.19, "trend_reference": 28.054, "distance_from_trend": 0.040493, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.861546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.047681, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.403777, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045142, "excess_performance": -0.170767, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040493, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005328, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.047681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14582, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064038, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.146273, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045142, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.156501, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 19359113, "relative_activity": 1.053439, "balance": 2.156501, "dry_up": 0.915183, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082973, "annualized_volatility": 0.375364, "from_high_reference": -0.153422, "from_low_reference": 0.224927 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.054, "fair_value_reference": 27.861546, "structural_low": 23.83, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.045113, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.02086, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.045113, "worst_return": 0.045113, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014365, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131268, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070007, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": 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27.93, "volume": 17403128, "typical_volume": 20085389.3, "trend": 28.197667, "fair_value": 27.834839, "relative_strength": -9.611127, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.601603, "energy": 27.735811, "activity_lines": [ 28.461333, 27.810727, 27.028857, 27.469505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.73, "volume": 14502162, "typical_volume": 19428572.3, "trend": 28.133333, "fair_value": 27.823085, "relative_strength": -11.597096, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.623174, "energy": 17.458051, "activity_lines": [ 27.982, 27.721273, 27.011476, 27.374817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 28.7, "volume": 17345158, "typical_volume": 18990723.9, "trend": 28.118, "fair_value": 27.832316, "relative_strength": -4.250534, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.855543, "energy": 20.036596, "activity_lines": [ 28.171333, 27.961091, 27.201095, 27.411376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.31, "volume": 16067026, "typical_volume": 18674688.25, "trend": 28.107, "fair_value": 27.847708, "relative_strength": -2.996517, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.569838, "energy": 15.153932, "activity_lines": [ 28.500667, 28.249091, 27.449619, 27.48828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.19, "volume": 19359113, "typical_volume": 18377053.9, "trend": 28.054, "fair_value": 27.861546, "relative_strength": -6.403777, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.261921, "energy": 19.083619, "activity_lines": [ 28.712, 28.468545, 27.671238, 27.558151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }