{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47aa0a13-bb98-4fe2-af7e-bb1fbd9d38d9", "symbol": "WDMVO", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI World Selection Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.969, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.882, "architecture_energy": 71.261, "architecture_maturity": 56.798, "architecture_confidence": 67.998, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.58, "rotation_up": 71.59, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.83, "rotation_down": 19.56, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.051339, 132.306005, 130.164623, 128.776713 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 133.770004, "trend_reference": 127.235669, "distance_from_trend": 0.051356, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 125.50703, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065837, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.834405, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.072219, "excess_performance": -0.098673, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051356, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017953, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065837, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063749, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026413, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.072219, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.688312, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5146, "relative_activity": 12.617384, "balance": 5.688312, "dry_up": 3.68763, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010477, "annualized_volatility": 0.067827, "from_high_reference": -0.016903, "from_low_reference": 0.100173 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.235669, "fair_value_reference": 125.50703, "structural_low": 122.669998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010162, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.00292, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.021622, "worst_return": -0.020861, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.024338, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.137676, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.024338, "worst_return": 0.024338, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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129.438671, 128.289458, 126.821002, 126.225335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 132.630005, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 864.35, "trend": 125.832668, "fair_value": 125.123958, "relative_strength": -9.583009, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 95.421071, "energy": 98.044501, "activity_lines": [ 130.634005, 129.273095, 127.446574, 126.680518 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 132.630005, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 864.35, "trend": 126.090668, "fair_value": 125.20134, "relative_strength": -8.910587, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.03847, "energy": 96.774046, "activity_lines": [ 131.528005, 130.107277, 128.035813, 127.119056 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 132.570007, "volume": 443, "typical_volume": 886.5, "trend": 126.356002, "fair_value": 125.276531, "relative_strength": -7.362128, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.836807, "energy": 92.472834, "activity_lines": [ 132.100672, 130.774914, 128.583004, 127.537078 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 132.210007, "volume": 339, "typical_volume": 149.8, "trend": 126.621669, "fair_value": 125.346566, "relative_strength": -7.18376, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.210217, "energy": 87.798483, "activity_lines": [ 132.35734, 131.240187, 129.059861, 127.914756 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 133.130005, "volume": 88, "typical_volume": 150.55, "trend": 126.918002, "fair_value": 125.4244, "relative_strength": -6.874799, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.939087, "energy": 70.368095, "activity_lines": [ 132.672673, 131.773096, 129.597433, 128.334648 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 133.770004, "volume": 5146, "typical_volume": 407.85, "trend": 127.235669, "fair_value": 125.50703, "relative_strength": -8.834405, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.881507, "energy": 71.261051, "activity_lines": [ 133.051339, 132.306005, 130.164623, 128.776713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }