{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47aebcaf-4384-41bb-8ed2-31f20cbe148c", "symbol": "OM", "name": "Outset Medical\u00a0Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.418, "architecture_energy": 16.873, "architecture_maturity": 24.626, "architecture_confidence": 67.956, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.54, "rotation_up": 36.77, "upward_expansion": 57.3, "deceleration": 79.24, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 20.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.515333, 4.528364, 4.470119, 4.32628 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.9, "trend_reference": 4.249333, "distance_from_trend": 0.153122, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.844824, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.846129, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -36.502572, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.088889, "excess_performance": -0.098565, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153122, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029833, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.846129, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089011, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365026, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.339521, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088889, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.635312, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 698681, "relative_activity": 0.778584, "balance": 0.635312, "dry_up": 0.664369, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.173013, "annualized_volatility": 0.710862, "from_high_reference": -0.696782, "from_low_reference": 0.633333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.249333, "fair_value_reference": 31.844824, "structural_low": 3.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.063395, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.031644, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.434286, "worst_return": -0.387552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.321232, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.294339, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.919192, "worst_return": -0.816925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.693852, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.629909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.115205, "worst_return": -0.783566, 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-49.185391, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.108656, "energy": 13.577586, "activity_lines": [ 4.472667, 4.54, 4.392762, 4.26972 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.04, "volume": 581502, "typical_volume": 947374.3, "trend": 4.209, "fair_value": 34.976426, "relative_strength": -48.065301, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.199554, "energy": 12.455083, "activity_lines": [ 4.287333, 4.458364, 4.379238, 4.26028 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.57, "volume": 434865, "typical_volume": 903944.5, "trend": 4.238, "fair_value": 33.355721, "relative_strength": -39.462547, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.557306, "energy": 15.753866, "activity_lines": [ 4.346, 4.465636, 4.412095, 4.28357 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.9, "volume": 698681, "typical_volume": 897374.35, "trend": 4.249333, "fair_value": 31.844824, "relative_strength": -36.502572, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.41824, "energy": 16.872587, "activity_lines": [ 4.515333, 4.528364, 4.470119, 4.32628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }