{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47bab674-5b6a-4e89-b876-c51e29390f06", "symbol": "601868", "name": "China Energy Engineering Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.706, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -32.296, "architecture_energy": 40.477, "architecture_maturity": 14.946, "architecture_confidence": 47.574, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.22, "rotation_up": 25.52, "upward_expansion": 14.78, "deceleration": 50.56, "rotation_down": 53.75, "downward_expansion": 54.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.576, 2.602, 2.724238, 2.776602 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.6, "trend_reference": 2.771333, "distance_from_trend": -0.061823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.334164, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113889, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.171714, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.069959, "excess_performance": 0.113163, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032667, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113889, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.284251, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001717, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.176513, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.069959, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.357645, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1581211015, "relative_activity": 0.566563, "balance": 1.357645, "dry_up": 0.598685, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071893, "annualized_volatility": 0.569895, "from_high_reference": -0.340102, "from_low_reference": 0.125541 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.771333, "fair_value_reference": 2.334164, "structural_low": 2.38, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.020442, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025851, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.056604, "worst_return": 0.008621, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.150142, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.019101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.348936, "worst_return": -0.030173, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04515, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.025106, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.174468, "worst_return": -0.094828, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"energy": 56.787808, "activity_lines": [ 2.589333, 2.677091, 2.809333, 2.809978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.55, "volume": 2088392045, "typical_volume": 4044393611.85, "trend": 2.755333, "fair_value": 2.330197, "relative_strength": 0.772367, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.798519, "energy": 52.762342, "activity_lines": [ 2.563333, 2.635273, 2.774905, 2.79714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.6, "volume": 1449797089, "typical_volume": 3266032937.1, "trend": 2.763, "fair_value": 2.332087, "relative_strength": 2.473408, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.193757, "energy": 44.184475, "activity_lines": [ 2.568, 2.615091, 2.746857, 2.787118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.6, "volume": 1581211015, "typical_volume": 2790880880.9, "trend": 2.771333, "fair_value": 2.334164, "relative_strength": -0.171714, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.29647, "energy": 40.476872, "activity_lines": [ 2.576, 2.602, 2.724238, 2.776602 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }