{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47bb633e-9a99-42c0-9e1a-37d82b91b941", "symbol": "BDT", "name": "Bertrandt Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.007, "architecture_energy": 87.598, "architecture_maturity": 87.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.92, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 29.99, "upward_expansion": 21.91, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 56.22, "downward_expansion": 95.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.68, 8.815636, 9.647476, 11.152194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.74, "trend_reference": 13.378667, "distance_from_trend": -0.346721, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.087477, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.664973, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -55.856675, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.51766, "excess_performance": -0.691907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.346721, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192012, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.664973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014129, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.558567, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021019, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.51766, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.035158, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059409, "annualized_volatility": 0.550644, "from_high_reference": -0.584798, "from_low_reference": 0.058111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.378667, "fair_value_reference": 26.087477, "structural_low": 8.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.027643, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.047733, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.265537, "worst_return": -0.318182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.091274, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.062225, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.120448, "worst_return": -0.378378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.044413, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.093969, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.331647, "worst_return": -0.561425, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.5086, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061209, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.07377, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187244, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.632202, "energy": 68.487127, "activity_lines": [ 9.037333, 9.350182, 10.88481, 12.597269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.56, "volume": 1123, "typical_volume": 236.15, "trend": 14.400667, "fair_value": 26.795376, "relative_strength": -57.246436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.818856, "energy": 70.241535, "activity_lines": [ 8.854667, 9.155818, 10.496619, 12.199419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.52, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 192.85, "trend": 14.080667, "fair_value": 26.556554, "relative_strength": -57.250653, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.928803, "energy": 68.727318, "activity_lines": [ 8.706667, 8.984, 10.155762, 11.820021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.72, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 137.95, "trend": 13.730667, "fair_value": 26.323034, "relative_strength": -55.442579, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.33147, "energy": 87.019636, "activity_lines": [ 8.681333, 8.884545, 9.879762, 11.474172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.74, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 137.95, "trend": 13.378667, "fair_value": 26.087477, "relative_strength": -55.856675, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.007016, "energy": 87.598182, "activity_lines": [ 8.68, 8.815636, 9.647476, 11.152194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }