{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47bb8d7b-2c98-49f0-ae55-1eb1f81ad6f0", "symbol": "OILD", "name": "Bank of Montreal", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.459, "architecture_energy": 59.791, "architecture_maturity": 18.7, "architecture_confidence": 80.719, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.64, "rotation_up": 11.41, "upward_expansion": 13.25, "deceleration": 37.52, "rotation_down": 68.66, "downward_expansion": 81.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.34086, 42.012864, 42.88195, 44.022154 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 39.4029, "trend_reference": 48.273407, "distance_from_trend": -0.183756, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 134.277091, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.706555, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -53.351793, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.347634, "excess_performance": -0.473259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.183756, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281938, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.706555, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01334, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.533518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043334, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.347634, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.481247, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 304031, "relative_activity": 0.649468, "balance": 0.481247, "dry_up": 0.638873, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162997, "annualized_volatility": 0.802134, "from_high_reference": -0.710486, "from_low_reference": 0.184693 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.273407, "fair_value_reference": 134.277091, "structural_low": 33.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.004211, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.010393, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.338189, "worst_return": -0.335068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.039103, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.026166, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.250399, "worst_return": -0.611418, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.079712, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.185416, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.137959, "worst_return": -0.526335, 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47.666133, 45.082709, 44.374252, 49.215413 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 52.48, "volume": 392727, "typical_volume": 631202.6, "trend": 58.33138, "fair_value": 139.884842, "relative_strength": -42.967374, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.201274, "energy": 16.891182, "activity_lines": [ 49.742707, 46.669593, 45.046008, 48.746464 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 46.4144, "volume": 348976, "typical_volume": 507114.45, "trend": 56.567527, "fair_value": 138.572114, "relative_strength": -49.246319, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -4.728931, "energy": 17.960772, "activity_lines": [ 49.289413, 46.991458, 45.163515, 47.977626 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.35, "volume": 209648, "typical_volume": 480692.5, "trend": 54.292527, "fair_value": 137.392947, "relative_strength": -54.081536, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.753244, "energy": 14.115276, "activity_lines": [ 46.52936, 46.075535, 44.741964, 46.931334 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.91, "volume": 379646, "typical_volume": 484326.25, "trend": 51.956193, "fair_value": 136.275063, "relative_strength": -57.884481, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.798687, "energy": 33.483747, "activity_lines": [ 42.39864, 44.465611, 43.952412, 45.745365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.8135, "volume": 302961, "typical_volume": 474723.5, "trend": 49.969977, "fair_value": 135.202072, "relative_strength": -57.30498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.11984, "energy": 54.435045, "activity_lines": [ 39.271087, 42.889051, 43.219956, 44.703901 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.4029, "volume": 304031, "typical_volume": 468123.25, "trend": 48.273407, "fair_value": 134.277091, "relative_strength": -53.351793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.458739, "energy": 59.791156, "activity_lines": [ 38.34086, 42.012864, 42.88195, 44.022154 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }