{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47c14f45-24f1-4d8f-9a3a-0dbe045dda33", "symbol": "PCSGH", "name": "P.C.S. Machine Group Holding Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 55.481, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.512, "architecture_energy": 48.836, "architecture_maturity": 13.333, "architecture_confidence": 67.135, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.41, "rotation_up": 62.87, "upward_expansion": 83.3, "deceleration": 48.57, "rotation_down": 15.67, "downward_expansion": 7.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.058667, 3.040364, 3.01107, 2.995671 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.1, "trend_reference": 2.976004, "distance_from_trend": 0.041665, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.488378, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.111335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.87492, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0608, "excess_performance": -0.131525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041665, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009102, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.111335, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033368, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.098749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016086, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0608, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.606188, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 861300, "relative_activity": 1.772861, "balance": 0.606188, "dry_up": 1.370761, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026799, "annualized_volatility": 0.166157, "from_high_reference": -0.016819, "from_low_reference": 0.082159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.976004, "fair_value_reference": 3.488378, "structural_low": 2.864645, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.005228, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.117647, "worst_return": -0.061403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.032316, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.016812, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.08871, "worst_return": -0.08025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.019946, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.073692, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.054039, "worst_return": -0.130398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -12.48092, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.935657, "energy": 37.493426, "activity_lines": [ 3.037333, 3.024727, 2.999873, 2.987248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.1, "volume": 861300, "typical_volume": 485825.0, "trend": 2.976004, "fair_value": 3.488378, "relative_strength": -9.87492, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.511926, "energy": 48.836499, "activity_lines": [ 3.058667, 3.040364, 3.01107, 2.995671 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }