{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47c65abd-0546-4f2a-bb7f-4c32d080fa50", "symbol": "002715", "name": "Huaiji Dengyun Auto-parts (Holding) Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.93, "architecture_energy": 59.53, "architecture_maturity": 23.797, "architecture_confidence": 90.737, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.47, "rotation_up": 13.05, "upward_expansion": 11.74, "deceleration": 41.28, "rotation_down": 63.1, "downward_expansion": 82.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.148, 13.536545, 14.487286, 14.941398 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.63, "trend_reference": 15.532, "distance_from_trend": -0.122457, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.712472, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.132536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.209866, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.202924, "excess_performance": -0.210324, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.122457, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107168, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.132536, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.280443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.272099, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047598, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.202924, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.20776, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12228600, "relative_activity": 0.599604, "balance": 0.20776, "dry_up": 0.804803, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111857, "annualized_volatility": 0.409189, "from_high_reference": -0.550758, "from_low_reference": 0.191434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.532, "fair_value_reference": 15.712472, "structural_low": 11.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.009043, "positive_rate": 0.565217, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": 0.012331, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.498214, "worst_return": -0.15746, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.089104, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.058212, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.337778, "worst_return": -0.202335, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.090415, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.625926, "worst_return": -0.249084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 14.339333, 15.090364, 15.507381, 15.810624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 14.45, "volume": 40324501, "typical_volume": 20356211.2, "trend": 16.148333, "fair_value": 15.75737, "relative_strength": -29.68316, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.884417, "energy": 60.059701, "activity_lines": [ 14.318, 14.842182, 15.382095, 15.692086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.26, "volume": 21016455, "typical_volume": 20749926.6, "trend": 16.001333, "fair_value": 15.748372, "relative_strength": -28.385956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.695192, "energy": 54.733016, "activity_lines": [ 13.978, 14.433091, 15.155571, 15.505742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.3, "volume": 18278050, "typical_volume": 20688089.15, "trend": 15.819667, "fair_value": 15.731941, "relative_strength": -33.116427, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.831934, "energy": 53.277638, "activity_lines": [ 13.403333, 13.934909, 14.856286, 15.266946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.8, "volume": 14130900, "typical_volume": 20533093.95, "trend": 15.656333, "fair_value": 15.718842, "relative_strength": -28.624379, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.018179, "energy": 63.896593, "activity_lines": [ 13.107333, 13.620364, 14.62481, 15.072129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.63, "volume": 12228600, "typical_volume": 20394443.85, "trend": 15.532, "fair_value": 15.712472, "relative_strength": -27.209866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.930382, "energy": 59.529708, "activity_lines": [ 13.148, 13.536545, 14.487286, 14.941398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }