{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47c7048d-5b59-4945-844f-8d91a046fbb8", "symbol": "TAC", "name": "TransAlta Corp", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.81, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.687, "architecture_energy": 18.066, "architecture_maturity": 50.277, "architecture_confidence": 65.71, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.54, "rotation_up": 21.15, "upward_expansion": 18.25, "deceleration": 63.57, "rotation_down": 51.15, "downward_expansion": 36.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.936667, 13.235091, 13.253247, 13.17543 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 12.43, "trend_reference": 13.080318, "distance_from_trend": -0.049717, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.400834, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.195097, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.484925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.054527, "excess_performance": -0.180152, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.049717, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006702, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.195097, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068904, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.174849, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062418, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.054527, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.201968, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9009487, "relative_activity": 1.199697, "balance": 1.201968, "dry_up": 1.050668, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087694, "annualized_volatility": 0.382184, "from_high_reference": -0.297418, "from_low_reference": 0.096176 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.080318, "fair_value_reference": 10.400834, "structural_low": 11.339416, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.009479, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.020229, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.197443, "worst_return": -0.125879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.08055, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.039748, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.402991, "worst_return": -0.125516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061908, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.068574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.990371, "worst_return": 0.001316, "sufficient": false }, { 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[ 13.816667, 13.621369, 13.317367, 13.19753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.26, "volume": 5875181, "typical_volume": 7481246.8, "trend": 13.057352, "fair_value": 10.337277, "relative_strength": -9.014744, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.428373, "energy": 30.340881, "activity_lines": [ 13.662, 13.587918, 13.329316, 13.212363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.72, "volume": 5214268, "typical_volume": 7382287.5, "trend": 13.089697, "fair_value": 10.364554, "relative_strength": -5.24424, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.502208, "energy": 26.401822, "activity_lines": [ 13.669333, 13.628185, 13.387126, 13.255115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.5, "volume": 11462296, "typical_volume": 7522742.05, "trend": 13.075417, "fair_value": 10.383222, "relative_strength": -14.345427, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.762145, "energy": 7.893169, "activity_lines": [ 13.271333, 13.428714, 13.323768, 13.21707 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.43, "volume": 9009487, "typical_volume": 7509802.55, "trend": 13.080318, "fair_value": 10.400834, "relative_strength": -17.484925, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.686945, "energy": 18.066022, "activity_lines": [ 12.936667, 13.235091, 13.253247, 13.17543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }