{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47c750eb-6590-450e-93d5-9cd5779cad8e", "symbol": "688141", "name": "JoulWatt Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.742, "architecture_energy": 26.98, "architecture_maturity": 75.323, "architecture_confidence": 87.572, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.52, "rotation_up": 32.87, "upward_expansion": 66.17, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 27.33, "downward_expansion": 16.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 128.825998, 133.291635, 120.372189, 105.693182 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 137.509995, "trend_reference": 87.244333, "distance_from_trend": 0.576148, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.984423, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.439089, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 100.626407, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.634291, "excess_performance": 1.677495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.576148, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.523103, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.439089, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.602929, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.006264, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125368, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.634291, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.268694, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86689714, "relative_activity": 1.202152, "balance": 1.268694, "dry_up": 1.368164, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.19311, "annualized_volatility": 0.885973, "from_high_reference": -0.256703, "from_low_reference": 3.749913 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 87.244333, "fair_value_reference": 39.984423, "structural_low": 42.509998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.034445, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.052471, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.136678, "worst_return": -0.096535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.250657, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.227707, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.838867, "worst_return": 0.062976, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.130263, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.043789, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.305854, "worst_return": 0.954671, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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146.038077, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.621862, "energy": 89.193217, "activity_lines": [ 148.721331, 131.451817, 108.894094, 93.937139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 116.830002, "volume": 102369773, "typical_volume": 66026630.15, "trend": 78.508999, "fair_value": 38.251154, "relative_strength": 94.457542, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.647928, "energy": 64.017309, "activity_lines": [ 139.951999, 131.050544, 111.400618, 96.579397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 134.029999, "volume": 98126973, "typical_volume": 67939932.4, "trend": 81.768999, "fair_value": 38.859615, "relative_strength": 113.232628, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.628751, "energy": 54.052048, "activity_lines": [ 136.947999, 133.357272, 115.267808, 100.161397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 114.110001, "volume": 107458405, "typical_volume": 70034648.0, "trend": 84.108333, "fair_value": 39.340513, "relative_strength": 76.268699, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.351199, "energy": 33.30384, "activity_lines": [ 127.897333, 131.357272, 116.856237, 102.247913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 137.509995, "volume": 86689714, "typical_volume": 72112117.1, "trend": 87.244333, "fair_value": 39.984423, "relative_strength": 100.626407, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.741651, "energy": 26.979535, "activity_lines": [ 128.825998, 133.291635, 120.372189, 105.693182 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }