{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47caf46e-e802-48bb-b6d5-d61625ea04d2", "symbol": "BOL", "name": "Bollor\u00e9 SE", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.51, "architecture_energy": 81.29, "architecture_maturity": 39.462, "architecture_confidence": 93.153, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.36, "rotation_up": 20.25, "upward_expansion": 18.12, "deceleration": 37.74, "rotation_down": 65.75, "downward_expansion": 91.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.893867, 3.957483, 3.980831, 4.123678 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.786, "trend_reference": 4.322086, "distance_from_trend": -0.124034, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.22184, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.274968, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.770032, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.201266, "excess_performance": -0.254577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124034, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051631, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.274968, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025044, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.2177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022649, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.201266, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.948347, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9933501, "relative_activity": 1.080722, "balance": 0.948347, "dry_up": 1.029282, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035211, "annualized_volatility": 0.464843, "from_high_reference": -0.272622, "from_low_reference": 0.054806 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.322086, "fair_value_reference": 5.22184, "structural_low": 3.589286, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.018639, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": -0.001807, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.109663, "worst_return": -0.077647, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.009055, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.013165, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.086691, "worst_return": -0.079818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.009825, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.064355, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.186961, "worst_return": -0.100879, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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-16.72053, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.189748, "energy": 36.245815, "activity_lines": [ 4.027067, 4.008655, 4.045256, 4.191861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.89, "volume": 9660724, "typical_volume": 10273413.8, "trend": 4.351686, "fair_value": 5.230901, "relative_strength": -18.290378, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.282567, "energy": 57.326714, "activity_lines": [ 3.9708, 3.992984, 4.016739, 4.160174 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.786, "volume": 9933501, "typical_volume": 9191537.35, "trend": 4.322086, "fair_value": 5.22184, "relative_strength": -21.770032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.50963, "energy": 81.290322, "activity_lines": [ 3.893867, 3.957483, 3.980831, 4.123678 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }