{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47cf5b09-f2c5-4c39-a104-e97a3d0d6492", "symbol": "LXU", "name": "Lsb Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 90.816, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -52.485, "architecture_energy": 41.335, "architecture_maturity": 22.513, "architecture_confidence": 67.227, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.68, "rotation_up": 29.9, "upward_expansion": 12.84, "deceleration": 56.28, "rotation_down": 52.61, "downward_expansion": 52.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.802, 10.999273, 11.861333, 12.285763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.62, "trend_reference": 12.255333, "distance_from_trend": -0.215036, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.073526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.060227, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.776806, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.004141, "excess_performance": -0.129766, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.215036, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06965, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.060227, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.494742, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197768, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.471835, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.004141, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.371969, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5825388, "relative_activity": 1.042415, "balance": 0.371969, "dry_up": 0.799971, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.12294, "annualized_volatility": 0.539457, "from_high_reference": -0.441185, "from_low_reference": 0.336111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.255333, "fair_value_reference": 9.073526, "structural_low": 9.4126, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.029058, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.02398, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.597403, "worst_return": -0.261092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.122198, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.07197, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.338677, "worst_return": -0.308411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.106276, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023323, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.486642, "worst_return": -0.304884, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.064698, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.109375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051656, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092689, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.083645, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.160987, "active": false }, { 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"close": 10.64, "volume": 3045151, "typical_volume": 6562892.3, "trend": 11.886, "fair_value": 9.064103, "relative_strength": -6.868228, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.334047, "energy": 60.982124, "activity_lines": [ 11.182, 11.941455, 12.895381, 12.624774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.91, "volume": 3027425, "typical_volume": 6648517.95, "trend": 11.953, "fair_value": 9.069615, "relative_strength": -5.866649, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.690881, "energy": 60.497385, "activity_lines": [ 10.977333, 11.627273, 12.675667, 12.561806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.39, "volume": 3292963, "typical_volume": 6632611.75, "trend": 12.043333, "fair_value": 9.073269, "relative_strength": -0.394901, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.5842, "energy": 57.565319, "activity_lines": [ 11.040667, 11.470545, 12.497524, 12.525484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.24, "volume": 3856504, "typical_volume": 6340665.65, "trend": 12.167667, "fair_value": 9.081923, "relative_strength": 7.261809, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.057837, "energy": 30.660399, "activity_lines": [ 11.442, 11.514182, 12.401429, 12.538172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.88, "volume": 4907238, "typical_volume": 5847722.85, "trend": 12.244667, "fair_value": 9.080449, "relative_strength": -5.957731, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.218691, "energy": 29.846676, "activity_lines": [ 11.332667, 11.351636, 12.181762, 12.455097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.62, "volume": 5825388, "typical_volume": 5588357.4, "trend": 12.255333, "fair_value": 9.073526, "relative_strength": -19.776806, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -52.485403, "energy": 41.335369, "activity_lines": [ 10.802, 10.999273, 11.861333, 12.285763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }