{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47d37775-e4dc-41cc-8d29-66342a67dfde", "symbol": "PFIX", "name": "SIMPLIFY EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS SIMPLIFY INT RATE HEDGE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 53.592, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 64.985, "architecture_energy": 67.257, "architecture_maturity": 9.207, "architecture_confidence": 62.059, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.92, "rotation_up": 75.39, "upward_expansion": 89.47, "deceleration": 42.8, "rotation_down": 8.49, "downward_expansion": 13.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.789476, 47.796265, 47.085529, 46.674549 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 50.3, "trend_reference": 46.143237, "distance_from_trend": 0.090084, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 44.424364, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.132262, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.041507, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.089416, "excess_performance": -0.036209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090084, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003315, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.132262, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040302, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.030415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.093368, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.089416, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.492117, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1212619, "relative_activity": 0.534477, "balance": 0.492117, "dry_up": 0.316245, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062934, "annualized_volatility": 0.321284, "from_high_reference": -0.072245, "from_low_reference": 0.227831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.143237, "fair_value_reference": 44.424364, "structural_low": 41.191784, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.023037, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.045212, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.208283, "worst_return": -0.157531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.087522, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.111279, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.302615, "worst_return": -0.161227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062828, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.035434, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092598, "worst_return": -0.014165, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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47.064995, 46.734603, 46.396594 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.3, "volume": 1212619, "typical_volume": 2268795.25, "trend": 46.143237, "fair_value": 44.424364, "relative_strength": -3.041507, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.984713, "energy": 67.256629, "activity_lines": [ 49.789476, 47.796265, 47.085529, 46.674549 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }