{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47da8446-bfda-4aef-8a92-6eadc7fdb1f9", "symbol": "ALAR", "name": "Alarum Technologies Ltd.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.215, "architecture_energy": 88.264, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.211, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.58, "rotation_up": 8.04, "upward_expansion": 21.99, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 81.18, "downward_expansion": 97.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.91, 3.583273, 5.417881, 5.936994 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.95, "trend_reference": 6.573867, "distance_from_trend": -0.703371, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.0455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.838114, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -81.857178, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.732143, "excess_performance": -0.919596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.703371, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.19063, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.838114, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.543444, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.818572, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.472726, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.732143, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.192548, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 918728, "relative_activity": 1.210641, "balance": 0.192548, "dry_up": 1.116715, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.779838, "annualized_volatility": 1.63626, "from_high_reference": -0.891667, "from_low_reference": 0.203704 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.573867, "fair_value_reference": 12.0455, "structural_low": 1.62, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.070725, "positive_rate": 0.410256, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.048329, "regime_survival": 0.871795, "best_return": 0.7127, "worst_return": -0.336158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.186066, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.202161, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 1.02044, "worst_return": -0.446957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.281674, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.402526, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 1.336478, "worst_return": -0.466102, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.53719, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.414561, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.317376, "worst_return": -0.589831, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.170483, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 3.803922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.179787, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.479167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.281028, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056405, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050584, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.182047, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.36958, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03799, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.131222, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.19332, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.287318, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113636, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.39, "volume": 93279, "typical_volume": 635537.9, "trend": 2.27475, "fair_value": 8.045944, "relative_strength": -29.853554, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance 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-81.504543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.743004, "energy": 52.701697, "activity_lines": [ 5.871333, 7.146091, 7.272743, 7.288335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.17, "volume": 1161470, "typical_volume": 682168.95, "trend": 7.268533, "fair_value": 12.054346, "relative_strength": -80.549812, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.724178, "energy": 83.29541, "activity_lines": [ 4.244667, 6.136909, 6.79819, 6.947247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.88, "volume": 620800, "typical_volume": 704492.9, "trend": 7.069533, "fair_value": 12.052615, "relative_strength": -82.478336, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.688669, "energy": 92.3229, "activity_lines": [ 3.018667, 5.186273, 6.31669, 6.5996 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.68, "volume": 688802, "typical_volume": 734233.2, "trend": 6.830867, "fair_value": 12.048128, "relative_strength": -84.043443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.222763, "energy": 91.338152, "activity_lines": [ 2.212, 4.304727, 5.842524, 6.251888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.95, "volume": 918728, "typical_volume": 758877.35, "trend": 6.573867, "fair_value": 12.0455, "relative_strength": -81.857178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.215342, "energy": 88.264134, "activity_lines": [ 1.91, 3.583273, 5.417881, 5.936994 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }