{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47e25d5d-666f-4e08-9291-4b975f70d1bf", "symbol": "MBX", "name": "Microbix Biosystems Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 89.512, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.222, "architecture_energy": 35.761, "architecture_maturity": 80.724, "architecture_confidence": 86.721, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.51, "rotation_up": 32.51, "upward_expansion": 63.28, "deceleration": 91.12, "rotation_down": 27.07, "downward_expansion": 17.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.298, 0.300364, 0.286381, 0.274108 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.29, "trend_reference": 0.258667, "distance_from_trend": 0.121134, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.319103, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.091201, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.706542, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.26087, "excess_performance": 0.140448, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.121134, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077778, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.091201, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140326, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017065, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.171773, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.26087, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.309203, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34800, "relative_activity": 0.181685, "balance": 1.309203, "dry_up": 0.452908, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066313, "annualized_volatility": 0.360698, "from_high_reference": -0.09375, "from_low_reference": 0.380952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.258667, "fair_value_reference": 0.319103, "structural_low": 0.22, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.011988, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.309091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.09024, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.110577, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.028169, "worst_return": -0.209302, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.209302, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.29463, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.183099, "worst_return": -0.25, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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0.258237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.32, "volume": 201400, "typical_volume": 208010.0, "trend": 0.250333, "fair_value": 0.319487, "relative_strength": 13.084634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.496924, "energy": 92.034794, "activity_lines": [ 0.308, 0.293818, 0.274095, 0.262882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.3, "volume": 102500, "typical_volume": 202630.0, "trend": 0.253, "fair_value": 0.319423, "relative_strength": 6.681395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.180865, "energy": 72.835229, "activity_lines": [ 0.306, 0.297455, 0.277857, 0.266086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.3, "volume": 119500, "typical_volume": 204235.0, "trend": 0.255333, "fair_value": 0.319359, "relative_strength": 6.896565, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.94448, "energy": 59.587971, "activity_lines": [ 0.304, 0.300182, 0.281333, 0.269118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3, "volume": 90200, "typical_volume": 194290.0, "trend": 0.257333, "fair_value": 0.319231, "relative_strength": 8.007525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.980234, "energy": 53.118316, "activity_lines": [ 0.302667, 0.301636, 0.284476, 0.272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.29, "volume": 34800, "typical_volume": 191540.0, "trend": 0.258667, "fair_value": 0.319103, "relative_strength": 1.706542, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.222071, "energy": 35.761085, "activity_lines": [ 0.298, 0.300364, 0.286381, 0.274108 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }