{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47e3f1fe-4e96-4b74-82d1-cb6e7152bb6b", "symbol": "300789", "name": "Chengdu Tangyuan Electric Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.781, "architecture_energy": 39.709, "architecture_maturity": 62.953, "architecture_confidence": 65.347, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.67, "rotation_up": 22.79, "upward_expansion": 16.59, "deceleration": 66.83, "rotation_down": 49.53, "downward_expansion": 68.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.47404, 17.405428, 18.897055, 19.789472 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.610001, "trend_reference": 20.984443, "distance_from_trend": -0.113153, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.148026, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.076336, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.535482, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.178729, "excess_performance": -0.186129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.113153, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0825, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.076336, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.250268, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235355, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000848, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.178729, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.257205, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57060514, "relative_activity": 4.360454, "balance": 0.257205, "dry_up": 2.188941, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114682, "annualized_volatility": 0.520903, "from_high_reference": -0.452002, "from_low_reference": 0.336012 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.984443, "fair_value_reference": 20.148026, "structural_low": 13.929516, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.021944, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.007121, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.342297, "worst_return": -0.196552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.048792, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.062598, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.376919, "worst_return": -0.21252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.090606, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.010625, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.359194, "worst_return": -0.229368, "sufficient": true }, { 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"close": 15.804644, "volume": 13837557, "typical_volume": 9941508.4, "trend": 21.436097, "fair_value": 20.215185, "relative_strength": -35.321522, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.759261, "energy": 89.944085, "activity_lines": [ 16.662641, 18.020804, 19.68073, 20.508091 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.080387, "volume": 16035879, "typical_volume": 10323887.5, "trend": 21.22211, "fair_value": 20.178005, "relative_strength": -37.693063, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.645448, "energy": 88.466864, "activity_lines": [ 15.981242, 17.239912, 19.156658, 20.098046 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.959999, "volume": 27643216, "typical_volume": 11350926.45, "trend": 21.130777, "fair_value": 20.161521, "relative_strength": -19.253761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.753795, "energy": 55.84689, "activity_lines": [ 16.865688, 17.316215, 19.03688, 19.952103 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.610001, "volume": 57060514, "typical_volume": 13085912.65, "trend": 20.984443, "fair_value": 20.148026, "relative_strength": -23.535482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.780677, "energy": 39.708851, "activity_lines": [ 17.47404, 17.405428, 18.897055, 19.789472 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }