{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47e6a7b5-d2ed-4154-8926-e5cc9a2778db", "symbol": "IDR", "name": "Indra Sistemas, S.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 51.887, "architecture_energy": 54.384, "architecture_maturity": 17.12, "architecture_confidence": 71.694, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.1, "rotation_up": 67.7, "upward_expansion": 53.3, "deceleration": 30.43, "rotation_down": 24.51, "downward_expansion": 23.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 56.581334, 54.013696, 53.11997, 52.975557 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 63.259998, "trend_reference": 53.204168, "distance_from_trend": 0.189005, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.574659, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.138993, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.199825, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.300041, "excess_performance": 0.125794, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.189005, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028133, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.138993, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198702, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.061998, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088422, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.300041, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.287822, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 952, "relative_activity": 0.904169, "balance": 0.287822, "dry_up": 0.491025, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066359, "annualized_volatility": 0.584272, "from_high_reference": -0.035671, "from_low_reference": 0.93574 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.204168, "fair_value_reference": 29.574659, "structural_low": 43.84, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.071268, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.060353, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.544754, "worst_return": -0.062778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.370055, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.314644, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.518889, "worst_return": 0.22122, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.709202, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.62015, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.155805, "worst_return": 0.2626, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.373019, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.14954, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.308662, "worst_return": 0.437375, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.356241, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.126178, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02381, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00913, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.064573, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.34859, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158768, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.31373, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.108333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.244444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.000843, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163473, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 12.907764, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.0, "trend": 11.633613, "fair_value": 8.774495, "relative_strength": 24.651615, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.555225, "energy": 88.89531, 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advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.778629, "energy": 18.891754, "activity_lines": [ 51.582217, 52.47488, 52.233803, 52.589439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 47.400002, "volume": 621, "typical_volume": 986.55, "trend": 52.596501, "fair_value": 28.4768, "relative_strength": -17.981403, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.637006, "energy": 45.906954, "activity_lines": [ 49.808549, 51.588244, 51.711875, 52.251772 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.060001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 986.55, "trend": 52.633168, "fair_value": 28.715958, "relative_strength": -13.343448, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.141301, "energy": 53.016241, "activity_lines": [ 49.112374, 51.03888, 51.37947, 52.023611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 52.860001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 971.15, "trend": 52.787834, "fair_value": 28.971183, "relative_strength": -7.968912, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.626957, "energy": 45.312502, "activity_lines": [ 50.125525, 51.209516, 51.468922, 52.038245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 57.080002, "volume": 1116, "typical_volume": 1005.55, "trend": 53.023834, "fair_value": 29.252705, "relative_strength": -0.832774, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.039471, "energy": 2.598576, "activity_lines": [ 52.673685, 52.090879, 51.993565, 52.315159 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.259998, "volume": 952, "typical_volume": 1052.9, "trend": 53.204168, "fair_value": 29.574659, "relative_strength": 6.199825, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 51.887473, "energy": 54.383574, "activity_lines": [ 56.581334, 54.013696, 53.11997, 52.975557 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }