{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47e82e2f-1dbd-47b6-9292-023a27bd5b61", "symbol": "HINDALCO", "name": "Hindalco Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.877, "architecture_energy": 17.993, "architecture_maturity": 26.056, "architecture_confidence": 83.057, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.91, "rotation_up": 35.85, "upward_expansion": 53.65, "deceleration": 68.46, "rotation_down": 24.56, "downward_expansion": 24.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 991.996663, 981.641466, 1006.293138, 996.693521 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1059.599976, "trend_reference": 981.461428, "distance_from_trend": 0.079614, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 705.587998, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.501726, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 17.804112, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.124184, "excess_performance": 0.167893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079614, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053147, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.501726, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090053, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.178041, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.145485, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124184, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.456218, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33980345, "relative_activity": 1.614891, "balance": 2.456218, "dry_up": 1.167022, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054692, "annualized_volatility": 0.282329, "from_high_reference": -0.09898, "from_low_reference": 0.611559 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 981.461428, "fair_value_reference": 705.587998, "structural_low": 835.950012, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.030057, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.028822, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.071561, "worst_return": -0.222326, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.005056, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042899, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.023173, "worst_return": -0.033298, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031515, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.060269, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.181459, "worst_return": -0.034593, "sufficient": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 21775834.4, "trend": 974.548096, "fair_value": 698.329128, "relative_strength": 9.996084, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.810739, "energy": 46.275759, "activity_lines": [ 949.180652, 976.447573, 1002.322595, 991.31747 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 974.450012, "volume": 16987321, "typical_volume": 21058962.85, "trend": 976.173096, "fair_value": 701.702776, "relative_strength": 10.065266, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.074623, "energy": 30.192759, "activity_lines": [ 957.270223, 970.078614, 1000.40644, 991.311142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1059.599976, "volume": 33980345, "typical_volume": 21041881.3, "trend": 981.461428, "fair_value": 705.587998, "relative_strength": 17.804112, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.876839, "energy": 17.992652, "activity_lines": [ 991.996663, 981.641466, 1006.293138, 996.693521 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }