{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47e8f137-8620-44ca-83e6-9d79a1a6307e", "symbol": "ESPO", "name": "VanEck Video Gaming and eSports UCITS ETF A USD", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.083, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 64.046, "architecture_energy": 76.516, "architecture_maturity": 9.374, "architecture_confidence": 62.194, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.38, "rotation_up": 78.62, "upward_expansion": 65.98, "deceleration": 20.92, "rotation_down": 16.34, "downward_expansion": 24.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.265001, 49.184819, 48.153834, 47.905485 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 52.630001, "trend_reference": 48.1885, "distance_from_trend": 0.092169, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.918141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.171687, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.136542, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.094293, "excess_performance": 0.011409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.092169, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050919, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.171687, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104972, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.094293, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.831447, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25217, "relative_activity": 2.429922, "balance": 2.831447, "dry_up": 2.402242, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028552, "annualized_volatility": 0.198947, "from_high_reference": -0.174949, "from_low_reference": 0.157976 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.1885, "fair_value_reference": 44.918141, "structural_low": 45.450001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.033591, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.031727, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.066574, "worst_return": -0.079228, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.044422, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.062471, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.17141, "worst_return": -0.116414, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.04846, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.070568, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.269149, "worst_return": -0.288844, "sufficient": false }, { 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.017335, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040546, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037815, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005604, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.130198, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015319, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 29.200001, "volume": 545, "typical_volume": 2190.15, "trend": 30.081333, "fair_value": 33.628494, "relative_strength": 4.248453, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", 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47.993001, 47.324364, 47.158977, 47.570667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 48.57, "volume": 14345, "typical_volume": 6727.15, "trend": 48.621167, "fair_value": 44.54968, "relative_strength": -17.462735, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.91668, "energy": 25.057376, "activity_lines": [ 48.364334, 47.620273, 47.296715, 47.554119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 48.080002, "volume": 8151, "typical_volume": 6961.8, "trend": 48.414834, "fair_value": 44.652981, "relative_strength": -17.705129, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.968436, "energy": 30.600563, "activity_lines": [ 48.411001, 47.788274, 47.384048, 47.519205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.040001, "volume": 52006, "typical_volume": 9238.7, "trend": 48.267834, "fair_value": 44.774039, "relative_strength": -13.935833, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.514536, "energy": 61.017695, "activity_lines": [ 49.035668, 48.285364, 47.650001, 47.624054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 52.630001, "volume": 25217, "typical_volume": 10377.7, "trend": 48.1885, "fair_value": 44.918141, "relative_strength": -10.136542, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 64.045572, "energy": 76.515949, "activity_lines": [ 50.265001, 49.184819, 48.153834, 47.905485 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }