{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47ea21b1-33a1-4c3e-ac43-ca6b88b3200f", "symbol": "HFN", "name": "HAMILTON CHAMPIONS Canadian Financials Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.404, "architecture_energy": 66.695, "architecture_maturity": 64.431, "architecture_confidence": 76.127, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.42, "rotation_up": 53.85, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.38, "rotation_down": 28.89, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.058374, 24.883693, 24.007467, 23.145161 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 25.049999, "trend_reference": 22.109169, "distance_from_trend": 0.133014, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.01909, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.317098, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.806385, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.231816, "excess_performance": 0.111394, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.133014, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077342, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.317098, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096665, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.078064, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040992, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.231816, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.277778, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4300, "relative_activity": 0.789715, "balance": 2.277778, "dry_up": 0.789715, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020736, "annualized_volatility": 0.136423, "from_high_reference": -0.017523, "from_low_reference": 25482.213632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.109169, "fair_value_reference": 19.01909, "structural_low": 19.45075, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001599, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2025-01-24", "close": 15.490329, "volume": 22100, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-01-31", "close": 15.499914, "volume": 32700, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2025-02-07", "close": 15.5095, 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null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.957895, "volume": 6200, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.01, "volume": 4000, "typical_volume": 5425.0, "trend": 21.964515, "fair_value": 18.943704, "relative_strength": 11.423838, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.012407, "energy": 67.812659, "activity_lines": [ 25.053766, 24.753679, 23.79461, 22.946098 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.049999, "volume": 4300, "typical_volume": 5445.0, "trend": 22.109169, "fair_value": 19.01909, "relative_strength": 7.806385, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.403972, "energy": 66.694954, "activity_lines": [ 25.058374, 24.883693, 24.007467, 23.145161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }