{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47ec6962-08de-4732-a5a4-f2f9e4d460dd", "symbol": "300568", "name": "Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 79.525, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.025, "architecture_energy": 39.492, "architecture_maturity": 12.404, "architecture_confidence": 72.935, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.89, "rotation_up": 16.9, "upward_expansion": 21.32, "deceleration": 54.64, "rotation_down": 64.59, "downward_expansion": 43.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.314667, 14.972, 15.836413, 15.759223 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 13.53, "trend_reference": 15.552506, "distance_from_trend": -0.130044, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.3091, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.099187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.995998, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.021102, "excess_performance": -0.028501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130044, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01475, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.099187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.309583, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11996, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161499, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021102, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.815694, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 295112169, "relative_activity": 0.846474, "balance": 0.815694, "dry_up": 1.045168, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.217342, "annualized_volatility": 0.8116, "from_high_reference": -0.372449, "from_low_reference": 0.179283 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.552506, "fair_value_reference": 12.3091, "structural_low": 11.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.018447, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.0199, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.008532, "worst_return": -0.028362, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.038853, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.141515, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.057167, "worst_return": 0.020538, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.091973, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.134212, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.243114, "worst_return": -0.059169, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.232564, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 16.346098, "volume": 65525191, "typical_volume": 74768065.4, "trend": 18.386527, "fair_value": 19.39065, "relative_strength": -15.641348, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"close": 12.53, "volume": 392123070, "typical_volume": 343001827.3, "trend": 15.772258, "fair_value": 12.371785, "relative_strength": -15.593813, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.937426, "energy": 8.07457, "activity_lines": [ 16.419333, 16.981091, 16.753111, 16.287395 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.04, "volume": 400254842, "typical_volume": 353386566.7, "trend": 15.704874, "fair_value": 12.345863, "relative_strength": -18.938629, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.842169, "energy": 27.393687, "activity_lines": [ 14.641333, 16.058545, 16.350412, 16.046605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.33, "volume": 370046962, "typical_volume": 351498719.5, "trend": 15.609533, "fair_value": 12.325097, "relative_strength": -8.81128, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.134147, "energy": 32.999373, "activity_lines": [ 13.836, 15.452545, 16.078815, 15.893387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.53, "volume": 295112169, "typical_volume": 348637097.05, "trend": 15.552506, "fair_value": 12.3091, "relative_strength": -11.995998, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.02472, "energy": 39.491691, "activity_lines": [ 13.314667, 14.972, 15.836413, 15.759223 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }