{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47ef7e2f-643c-407c-8f21-ec1fc04a650f", "symbol": "DSI", "name": "ISHARES ESG MSCI KLD 400 ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.36, "architecture_energy": 50.098, "architecture_maturity": 31.566, "architecture_confidence": 75.57, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.55, "rotation_up": 52.4, "upward_expansion": 80.01, "deceleration": 64.12, "rotation_down": 26.26, "downward_expansion": 6.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 142.556, 141.680367, 140.320266, 137.296381 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 147.32, "trend_reference": 133.986472, "distance_from_trend": 0.099514, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 109.948267, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339903, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.917509, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.139672, "excess_performance": 0.014047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099514, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035075, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339903, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002973, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.009175, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001563, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.139672, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.872424, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 615016, "relative_activity": 0.96532, "balance": 1.872424, "dry_up": 0.898552, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02916, "annualized_volatility": 0.159995, "from_high_reference": -0.005904, "from_low_reference": 0.260762 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 133.986472, "fair_value_reference": 109.948267, "structural_low": 116.849986, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.044055, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.002822, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.090643, "worst_return": -0.116406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.06028, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.007974, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.140641, "worst_return": -0.094983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.106892, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006695, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.150747, "worst_return": 0.002054, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 142.9, "volume": 372257, "typical_volume": 723989.35, "trend": 132.351139, "fair_value": 108.444986, "relative_strength": 0.217843, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.882814, "energy": 50.27067, "activity_lines": [ 141.340173, 141.118447, 137.721396, 135.050602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 139.65, "volume": 414967, "typical_volume": 671140.1, "trend": 132.737121, "fair_value": 108.805905, "relative_strength": -0.506433, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.084808, "energy": 39.354289, "activity_lines": [ 140.856, 140.877967, 138.281904, 135.521496 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 137.9, "volume": 725948, "typical_volume": 665968.35, "trend": 132.997402, "fair_value": 109.149649, "relative_strength": -1.143803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.447272, "energy": 34.523972, "activity_lines": [ 139.873333, 140.330286, 138.619135, 135.854585 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 141.46, "volume": 533977, "typical_volume": 637072.25, "trend": 133.434757, "fair_value": 109.528438, "relative_strength": 0.317769, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.740194, "energy": 33.620631, "activity_lines": [ 140.337333, 140.476849, 139.233863, 136.400559 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 147.32, "volume": 615016, "typical_volume": 637110.95, "trend": 133.986472, "fair_value": 109.948267, "relative_strength": 0.917509, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.360367, "energy": 50.097729, "activity_lines": [ 142.556, 141.680367, 140.320266, 137.296381 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }