{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47f30411-d86a-4f0e-be81-f3d075a2f15c", "symbol": "002687", "name": "Zhejiang Giuseppe Garment Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 55.789, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -2.333, "architecture_energy": 3.836, "architecture_maturity": 24.021, "architecture_confidence": 63.997, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.27, "rotation_up": 31.63, "upward_expansion": 27.89, "deceleration": 57.6, "rotation_down": 32.82, "downward_expansion": 28.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.965333, 4.977498, 4.835626, 4.847551 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.01, "trend_reference": 4.8786, "distance_from_trend": 0.026934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.697723, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.066474, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.118324, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.011834, "excess_performance": -0.019234, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026934, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00569, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.066474, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014345, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001183, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.169231, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011834, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.945328, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78444707, "relative_activity": 1.085135, "balance": 0.945328, "dry_up": 1.5085, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111224, "annualized_volatility": 0.486765, "from_high_reference": -0.165, "from_low_reference": 0.237037 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.8786, "fair_value_reference": 4.697723, "structural_low": 4.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.002268, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": 0.001331, "regime_survival": 0.526316, "best_return": 0.095588, "worst_return": -0.12749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03333, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.055436, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.120567, "worst_return": -0.096994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.07057, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.10744, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.144727, "worst_return": -0.087431, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034803, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.074492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.042194, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.098039, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.133843, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": 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4.793397, 4.835599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.22, "volume": 127372278, "typical_volume": 63786653.15, "trend": 4.886933, "fair_value": 4.694561, "relative_strength": 7.34658, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 18.951667, "energy": 36.271274, "activity_lines": [ 5.31, 4.940091, 4.830169, 4.858356 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.7, "volume": 103887109, "typical_volume": 66345904.75, "trend": 4.878267, "fair_value": 4.695008, "relative_strength": -3.334819, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.964236, "energy": 29.535977, "activity_lines": [ 5.183333, 4.930902, 4.817702, 4.846295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.76, "volume": 126495405, "typical_volume": 70682665.4, "trend": 4.872267, "fair_value": 4.69584, "relative_strength": -0.224635, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.681851, "energy": 21.013481, "activity_lines": [ 5.040667, 4.932516, 4.813569, 4.838665 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.01, "volume": 78444707, "typical_volume": 72290261.05, "trend": 4.8786, "fair_value": 4.697723, "relative_strength": 0.118324, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -2.333396, "energy": 3.835728, "activity_lines": [ 4.965333, 4.977498, 4.835626, 4.847551 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }