{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47f5c9e7-3623-4aee-aae1-d79bd2f51e6a", "symbol": "GEMD", "name": "Gem Diamonds Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.478, "architecture_energy": 18.063, "architecture_maturity": 10.19, "architecture_confidence": 47.941, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.32, "rotation_up": 27.11, "upward_expansion": 11.2, "deceleration": 51.11, "rotation_down": 48.63, "downward_expansion": 50.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.035717, 0.036075, 0.038025, 0.038586 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.04035, "trend_reference": 0.038342, "distance_from_trend": 0.05238, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.086335, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.532632, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.29712, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.09498, "excess_performance": 0.043744, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05238, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049355, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.532632, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075286, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022971, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180722, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09498, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 8.789367, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1301476, "relative_activity": 1.980121, "balance": 8.789367, "dry_up": 1.187496, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.17739, "annualized_volatility": 0.68602, "from_high_reference": -0.457661, "from_low_reference": 0.614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.038342, "fair_value_reference": 0.086335, "structural_low": 0.03, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003464, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003318, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.012862, "worst_return": -0.219318, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.170419, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.189564, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.018265, "worst_return": -0.293103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.252874, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.248943, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.165596, "worst_return": -0.284018, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.079909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057269, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057395, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109049, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.613732, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.191136, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126214, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.103261, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.222727, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.16175, "volume": 1268754, "typical_volume": 569445.45, "trend": 0.244858, "fair_value": 0.437608, "relative_strength": -39.688084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.603475, 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0.088199, "relative_strength": -21.824118, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.264809, "energy": 46.564306, "activity_lines": [ 0.034023, 0.036478, 0.03844, 0.038708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0335, "volume": 876981, "typical_volume": 794093.5, "trend": 0.037922, "fair_value": 0.087244, "relative_strength": -20.158183, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.149524, "energy": 43.719554, "activity_lines": [ 0.033567, 0.035544, 0.037879, 0.038429 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.04035, "volume": 1301476, "typical_volume": 657271.1, "trend": 0.038342, "fair_value": 0.086335, "relative_strength": -2.29712, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.477642, "energy": 18.062706, "activity_lines": [ 0.035717, 0.036075, 0.038025, 0.038586 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }