{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47f6ae89-749c-4f9d-9130-96da498a20e5", "symbol": "KRM", "name": "Kingsrose Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.301, "architecture_energy": 55.026, "architecture_maturity": 99.514, "architecture_confidence": 92.773, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 28.39, "upward_expansion": 9.93, "deceleration": 59.65, "rotation_down": 47.95, "downward_expansion": 80.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.023733, 0.023964, 0.025714, 0.027933 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.024, "trend_reference": 0.031533, "distance_from_trend": -0.238901, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.038638, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.378847, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.57617, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.384615, "excess_performance": -0.448321, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.238901, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169447, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.378847, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121305, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.385762, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177451, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.384615, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.357176, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1094340, "relative_activity": 0.412935, "balance": 0.357176, "dry_up": 0.333587, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096154, "annualized_volatility": 0.428845, "from_high_reference": -0.563636, "from_low_reference": 0.090909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.031533, "fair_value_reference": 0.038638, "structural_low": 0.022, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.025152, "positive_rate": 0.366667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.02879, "regime_survival": 0.766667, "best_return": 0.345455, "worst_return": -0.195122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.026596, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.693878, "worst_return": -0.324324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.052381, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.087425, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.693878, "worst_return": -0.210526, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.131579, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.21875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", 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"direction": -77.831627, "energy": 84.455649, "activity_lines": [ 0.024267, 0.025182, 0.027714, 0.030318 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.024, "volume": 1749950, "typical_volume": 3135865.95, "trend": 0.033133, "fair_value": 0.039465, "relative_strength": -37.038491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.741703, "energy": 71.321729, "activity_lines": [ 0.0242, 0.024745, 0.027138, 0.029675 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.023, "volume": 556908, "typical_volume": 3101805.45, "trend": 0.032667, "fair_value": 0.039183, "relative_strength": -38.985537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.093708, "energy": 64.964152, "activity_lines": [ 0.023733, 0.024255, 0.026538, 0.029022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.024, "volume": 135026, "typical_volume": 2872663.5, "trend": 0.0322, "fair_value": 0.038907, "relative_strength": -37.237019, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.291733, "energy": 60.93637, "activity_lines": [ 0.023733, 0.024055, 0.0261, 0.028462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.024, "volume": 1094340, "typical_volume": 2650152.1, "trend": 0.031533, "fair_value": 0.038638, "relative_strength": -38.57617, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.300541, "energy": 55.025679, "activity_lines": [ 0.023733, 0.023964, 0.025714, 0.027933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }