{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47f878ab-4ec7-4cda-b566-eb9dd73b62c6", "symbol": "PAX", "name": "Patria Investments Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.946, "architecture_energy": 33.918, "architecture_maturity": 67.551, "architecture_confidence": 90.783, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.87, "rotation_up": 26.03, "upward_expansion": 3.8, "deceleration": 58.26, "rotation_down": 47.17, "downward_expansion": 79.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.093333, 11.095818, 11.328234, 11.596764 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.53, "trend_reference": 12.264383, "distance_from_trend": -0.059879, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.21878, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056371, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.869572, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.165016, "excess_performance": -0.35247, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059879, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097903, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056371, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043396, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238696, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0155, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165016, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.705814, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6641040, "relative_activity": 1.460167, "balance": 0.705814, "dry_up": 1.189612, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062686, "annualized_volatility": 0.32631, "from_high_reference": -0.335765, "from_low_reference": 0.092891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.264383, "fair_value_reference": 12.21878, "structural_low": 10.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.031006, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.000534, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.303026, "worst_return": -0.145867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.051527, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.020248, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.406457, "worst_return": -0.102591, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.097912, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.024433, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.484319, "worst_return": -0.05635, "sufficient": false }, { 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-61.599, "energy": 45.319693, "activity_lines": [ 11.06, 11.161033, 11.484943, 11.897016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.8, "volume": 4906487, "typical_volume": 4341094.85, "trend": 12.59859, "fair_value": 12.240808, "relative_strength": -25.61438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.994078, "energy": 45.883233, "activity_lines": [ 10.958667, 11.087818, 11.405334, 11.770335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.82, "volume": 6793449, "typical_volume": 4404149.2, "trend": 12.441757, "fair_value": 12.22722, "relative_strength": -25.386403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.924782, "energy": 43.571518, "activity_lines": [ 10.902, 11.025455, 11.332383, 11.655587 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.53, "volume": 6641040, "typical_volume": 4548136.7, "trend": 12.264383, "fair_value": 12.21878, "relative_strength": -23.869572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.946457, "energy": 33.917769, "activity_lines": [ 11.093333, 11.095818, 11.328234, 11.596764 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }