{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47f91aea-2ed4-47ad-a3f1-c0eae840b294", "symbol": "BTR", "name": "NORTHERN LIGHTS FUND TRUST II BEACON TACTICAL RISK ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.314, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.282, "architecture_energy": 61.199, "architecture_maturity": 40.268, "architecture_confidence": 77.922, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.8, "rotation_up": 61.8, "upward_expansion": 82.25, "deceleration": 58.31, "rotation_down": 22.68, "downward_expansion": 8.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.954033, 27.830289, 27.606497, 27.319853 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.2954, "trend_reference": 26.985457, "distance_from_trend": 0.048543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.883953, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137094, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.482583, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.062602, "excess_performance": -0.063023, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048543, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031232, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137094, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029203, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.034826, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000208, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062602, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.265321, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15243, "relative_activity": 1.211632, "balance": 3.265321, "dry_up": 0.941215, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013705, "annualized_volatility": 0.086729, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.184214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.985457, "fair_value_reference": 24.883953, "structural_low": 25.3945, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004491, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.010585, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.040982, "worst_return": -0.100954, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.016252, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.018523, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.03493, "worst_return": -0.138337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.035501, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006793, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.034685, "worst_return": -0.105688, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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27.431349, 27.170258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 27.7644, "volume": 4776, "typical_volume": 11844.1, "trend": 26.9092, "fair_value": 24.857203, "relative_strength": -2.039464, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.793992, "energy": 52.189365, "activity_lines": [ 27.788447, 27.709602, 27.49795, 27.230421 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.2954, "volume": 15243, "typical_volume": 12580.55, "trend": 26.985457, "fair_value": 24.883953, "relative_strength": -3.482583, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.282019, "energy": 61.199126, "activity_lines": [ 27.954033, 27.830289, 27.606497, 27.319853 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }