{ "ticker": { "uuid": "47f9eb8f-9c18-43b7-be18-a374130744da", "symbol": "CPNG", "name": "Coupang LLC", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.612, "architecture_energy": 54.853, "architecture_maturity": 32.534, "architecture_confidence": 85.873, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.55, "rotation_up": 17.31, "upward_expansion": 15.26, "deceleration": 34.28, "rotation_down": 64.51, "downward_expansion": 83.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.339333, 16.881818, 17.195524, 17.613333 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 16.23, "trend_reference": 18.168, "distance_from_trend": -0.106671, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 22.010833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.262636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -36.563368, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.084086, "excess_performance": -0.209711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.106671, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.139868, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.262636, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033174, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.365634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049723, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084086, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.076357, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 132408982, "relative_activity": 1.243802, "balance": 1.076357, "dry_up": 1.006935, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103223, "annualized_volatility": 0.489698, "from_high_reference": -0.523698, "from_low_reference": 0.087802 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.168, "fair_value_reference": 22.010833, "structural_low": 14.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.0475, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.031525, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.268326, "worst_return": -0.196403, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.065217, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.024474, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.389376, "worst_return": -0.188362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.285394, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.142949, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.442494, "worst_return": -0.224138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.469072, "energy": 19.862221, "activity_lines": [ 17.809333, 17.414545, 17.760333, 18.118839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.5, "volume": 95486457, "typical_volume": 106615814.2, "trend": 18.619, "fair_value": 22.040385, "relative_strength": -38.323469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.306484, "energy": 29.339083, "activity_lines": [ 17.005333, 17.135091, 17.507238, 17.898753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.35, "volume": 91103108, "typical_volume": 105933885.1, "trend": 18.385, "fair_value": 22.030577, "relative_strength": -34.729472, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.201562, "energy": 33.348708, "activity_lines": [ 16.651333, 17.021455, 17.352095, 17.752366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.23, "volume": 132408982, "typical_volume": 106455072.55, "trend": 18.168, "fair_value": 22.010833, "relative_strength": -36.563368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.611737, "energy": 54.853173, "activity_lines": [ 16.339333, 16.881818, 17.195524, 17.613333 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }