{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48097c64-fba1-411b-ae6e-226b2ae27244", "symbol": "AYA", "name": "Artrya Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.136, "architecture_energy": 19.538, "architecture_maturity": 60.441, "architecture_confidence": 89.665, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.59, "rotation_up": 23.46, "upward_expansion": 56.82, "deceleration": 88.31, "rotation_down": 37.71, "downward_expansion": 22.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.782, 5.059636, 4.915571, 4.591914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.44, "trend_reference": 4.230667, "distance_from_trend": 0.04948, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.558333, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.849198, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 12.04242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.357798, "excess_performance": 0.294093, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04948, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.105575, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.849198, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.994124, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.120424, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.520433, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.357798, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.644814, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4034011, "relative_activity": 1.759416, "balance": 0.644814, "dry_up": 1.692981, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.182086, "annualized_volatility": 0.826017, "from_high_reference": -0.315871, "from_low_reference": 2.62449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.230667, "fair_value_reference": 1.558333, "structural_low": 2.55, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.014319, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.016085, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.297125, "worst_return": -0.093333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.251857, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.211351, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.831169, "worst_return": 0.026667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.404762, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.294093, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.906667, "worst_return": 0.357798, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.885714, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.74638, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.533333, "worst_return": 0.238095, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.137931, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.534884, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106061, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118644, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.579365, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.137778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.192661, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.36, "volume": 2831750, "typical_volume": 1978638.1, "trend": 4.235667, "fair_value": 1.473494, "relative_strength": 50.49927, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.158872, "energy": 76.246368, "activity_lines": [ 5.593333, 5.308, 4.848905, 4.503462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.64, "volume": 2111953, "typical_volume": 1970361.45, "trend": 4.269, "fair_value": 1.508045, "relative_strength": 54.944495, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.644008, "energy": 70.794032, "activity_lines": [ 5.646667, 5.398364, 4.968762, 4.594065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.03, "volume": 6549037, "typical_volume": 2176919.75, "trend": 4.234333, "fair_value": 1.532147, "relative_strength": 6.533768, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.163944, "energy": 19.767659, "activity_lines": [ 5.106667, 5.185273, 4.924619, 4.578645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.44, "volume": 4034011, "typical_volume": 2292812.9, "trend": 4.230667, "fair_value": 1.558333, "relative_strength": 12.04242, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.13634, "energy": 19.538221, "activity_lines": [ 4.782, 5.059636, 4.915571, 4.591914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }