{ "ticker": { "uuid": "480c4781-6661-44c9-9060-31f9e89786fc", "symbol": "ADM", "name": "Admiral Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.281, "architecture_energy": 64.768, "architecture_maturity": 41.034, "architecture_confidence": 74.986, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.62, "rotation_up": 74.06, "upward_expansion": 86.2, "deceleration": 50.5, "rotation_down": 13.28, "downward_expansion": 10.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 3747.466667, 3659.309091, 3531.562357, 3429.235152 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3886.0, "trend_reference": 3271.259001, "distance_from_trend": 0.187922, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2932.970353, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.324937, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 9.383697, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.388231, "excess_performance": 0.336995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.187922, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045361, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.324937, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198855, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.093837, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.170652, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.388231, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.15592, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4271377, "relative_activity": 1.462338, "balance": 1.15592, "dry_up": 0.968687, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053479, "annualized_volatility": 0.28517, "from_high_reference": -0.029955, "from_low_reference": 0.481344 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3271.259001, "fair_value_reference": 2932.970353, "structural_low": 2661.283819, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.001939, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.464286, "median_excess_return": -0.017176, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.097657, "worst_return": -0.125822, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.036065, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.064026, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.169078, "worst_return": -0.121446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.009797, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.031018, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.12882, "worst_return": -0.053124, "sufficient": true }, { 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"gate": "up", "direction": 62.248768, "energy": 68.590291, "activity_lines": [ 3619.333333, 3539.454545, 3447.585118, 3352.342787 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3772.0, "volume": 2813509, "typical_volume": 3215141.4, "trend": 3243.498283, "fair_value": 2922.184913, "relative_strength": 6.424295, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.251305, "energy": 59.513925, "activity_lines": [ 3672.666667, 3591.672727, 3485.318695, 3387.783428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3886.0, "volume": 4271377, "typical_volume": 2920923.4, "trend": 3271.259001, "fair_value": 2932.970353, "relative_strength": 9.383697, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.28083, "energy": 64.768041, "activity_lines": [ 3747.466667, 3659.309091, 3531.562357, 3429.235152 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }