{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48108e21-00e1-4d3b-aa9f-e96c7ea5087c", "symbol": "300675", "name": "Shenzhen Institute of Building Research Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.336, "architecture_energy": 56.256, "architecture_maturity": 55.072, "architecture_confidence": 95.179, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 23.03, "upward_expansion": 9.55, "deceleration": 60.0, "rotation_down": 57.37, "downward_expansion": 82.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.882667, 12.048, 13.129429, 13.817656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.35, "trend_reference": 14.675333, "distance_from_trend": -0.158452, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.475879, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.146857, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.121511, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.251061, "excess_performance": -0.258461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.158452, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085421, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.146857, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.260758, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065337, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.251061, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.300157, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13918700, "relative_activity": 1.219831, "balance": 0.300157, "dry_up": 1.283908, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.089443, "annualized_volatility": 0.306456, "from_high_reference": -0.449398, "from_low_reference": 0.156367 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.675333, "fair_value_reference": 14.475879, "structural_low": 10.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.003744, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.000189, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.235455, "worst_return": -0.1337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.041228, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.026143, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.216602, "worst_return": -0.207057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.032425, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.031511, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.362431, "worst_return": -0.1981, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.943844, "energy": 84.282425, "activity_lines": [ 11.644, 12.268909, 13.508571, 14.163785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.98, "volume": 14926701, "typical_volume": 11562781.7, "trend": 14.784333, "fair_value": 14.501432, "relative_strength": -21.222048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.460526, "energy": 63.399608, "activity_lines": [ 11.702, 12.092182, 13.291095, 13.97471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.35, "volume": 13918700, "typical_volume": 11410354.1, "trend": 14.675333, "fair_value": 14.475879, "relative_strength": -22.121511, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.336141, "energy": 56.255773, "activity_lines": [ 11.882667, 12.048, 13.129429, 13.817656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }