{ "ticker": { "uuid": "481db6be-889c-45ef-89ec-86c212fef774", "symbol": "VJPA", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Japan UCITS ETF USD Accumulation", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.423, "architecture_energy": 28.705, "architecture_maturity": 48.837, "architecture_confidence": 91.121, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.82, "rotation_up": 37.65, "upward_expansion": 59.73, "deceleration": 84.98, "rotation_down": 28.67, "downward_expansion": 21.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.947332, 47.954545, 47.532833, 46.852898 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 49.509998, "trend_reference": 46.072417, "distance_from_trend": 0.074613, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.239904, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.366174, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.687069, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087654, "excess_performance": 0.036418, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.074613, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050764, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.366174, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006283, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046871, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043424, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087654, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.776454, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 199793, "relative_activity": 1.683577, "balance": 1.776454, "dry_up": 1.067354, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032556, "annualized_volatility": 0.228983, "from_high_reference": -0.002217, "from_low_reference": 0.294548 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.072417, "fair_value_reference": 36.239904, "structural_low": 41.200001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.017989, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.010998, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.061127, "worst_return": -0.029207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057585, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.047629, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138929, "worst_return": -0.033352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.015111, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00172, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.084065, "worst_return": -0.151623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022496, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007658, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.029692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097409, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022608, "active": false }, { "regime": 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47.727818, 47.136857, 46.517339 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 47.224998, "volume": 131959, "typical_volume": 116266.55, "trend": 45.861583, "fair_value": 36.107372, "relative_strength": 0.294619, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.738584, "energy": 18.663404, "activity_lines": [ 47.306333, 47.634818, 47.236262, 46.617516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.509998, "volume": 199793, "typical_volume": 118671.75, "trend": 46.072417, "fair_value": 36.239904, "relative_strength": 4.687069, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.423079, "energy": 28.705287, "activity_lines": [ 47.947332, 47.954545, 47.532833, 46.852898 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }