{ "ticker": { "uuid": "482046b4-fa61-4eeb-83cd-8623c15479d1", "symbol": "NVSN", "name": "Novartis AG", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.6, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 13.478, "architecture_energy": 14.812, "architecture_maturity": 13.385, "architecture_confidence": 78.759, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.19, "rotation_up": 42.8, "upward_expansion": 35.66, "deceleration": 37.44, "rotation_down": 22.3, "downward_expansion": 19.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 2691.466667, 2686.309091, 2652.604762, 2668.390884 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2677.0, "trend_reference": 2677.995638, "distance_from_trend": -0.000372, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2119.132363, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.263253, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.951374, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024635, "excess_performance": 0.079302, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000372, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030363, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.263253, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028722, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.039514, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088701, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024635, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.894118, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 68, "relative_activity": 0.128229, "balance": 0.894118, "dry_up": 0.088158, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025028, "annualized_volatility": 0.198146, "from_high_reference": -0.064656, "from_low_reference": 0.215535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2677.995638, "fair_value_reference": 2119.132363, "structural_low": 2479.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.010041, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.037178, "worst_return": -0.070321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.060029, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.084844, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149059, "worst_return": -0.146413, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012975, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.07452, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.155272, "worst_return": -0.087501, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.477777, "energy": 14.812153, "activity_lines": [ 2691.466667, 2686.309091, 2652.604762, 2668.390884 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }