{ "ticker": { "uuid": "482b923b-eba2-402a-a8ef-a6136e0c1d31", "symbol": "PTLO", "name": "Portillo's Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.052, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.481, "architecture_energy": 30.254, "architecture_maturity": 36.983, "architecture_confidence": 80.891, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.94, "rotation_up": 23.76, "upward_expansion": 7.91, "deceleration": 51.3, "rotation_down": 39.17, "downward_expansion": 67.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.494, 4.544909, 4.617143, 4.816624 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.43, "trend_reference": 5.088667, "distance_from_trend": -0.129438, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.223814, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.566698, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.44395, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.256711, "excess_performance": -0.444165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129438, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.022225, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.566698, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063568, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284439, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219621, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.256711, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.163853, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7359688, "relative_activity": 1.003369, "balance": 1.163853, "dry_up": 0.784967, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116501, "annualized_volatility": 0.724464, "from_high_reference": -0.460414, "from_low_reference": 0.17351 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.088667, "fair_value_reference": 10.223814, "structural_low": 3.775, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.028069, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.681818, "median_excess_return": -0.04604, "regime_survival": 0.909091, "best_return": 0.3194, "worst_return": -0.217492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.13253, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.245383, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.228543, "worst_return": -0.334232, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.207912, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.332163, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": -0.136746, "worst_return": -0.256711, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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4.482909, 4.78919, 4.973785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.67, "volume": 5271304, "typical_volume": 7481759.25, "trend": 5.120667, "fair_value": 10.532532, "relative_strength": -26.485384, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.170615, "energy": 19.945633, "activity_lines": [ 4.692667, 4.539273, 4.756857, 4.944839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.35, "volume": 4309424, "typical_volume": 7413048.35, "trend": 5.108667, "fair_value": 10.414071, "relative_strength": -28.548153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.157088, "energy": 19.530063, "activity_lines": [ 4.593333, 4.530727, 4.697238, 4.895118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.57, "volume": 6090445, "typical_volume": 7352893.45, "trend": 5.108, "fair_value": 10.318814, "relative_strength": -23.595875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.690797, "energy": 20.554561, "activity_lines": [ 4.561333, 4.555455, 4.662048, 4.860366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.43, "volume": 7359688, "typical_volume": 7334978.55, "trend": 5.088667, "fair_value": 10.223814, "relative_strength": -28.44395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.480887, "energy": 30.253758, "activity_lines": [ 4.494, 4.544909, 4.617143, 4.816624 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }