{ "ticker": { "uuid": "482e472f-c92a-4d9c-95cd-7a9afe84eb76", "symbol": "ICOP", "name": "I.CO.P. S.p.A. Societ\u00e0 Benefit", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.202, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 23.869, "architecture_energy": 19.195, "architecture_maturity": 65.656, "architecture_confidence": 87.333, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.88, "rotation_up": 20.77, "upward_expansion": 54.85, "deceleration": 91.14, "rotation_down": 34.28, "downward_expansion": 20.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.94, 28.703636, 28.410506, 27.30497 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 26.9, "trend_reference": 25.420522, "distance_from_trend": 0.0582, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.423449, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.744098, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.084677, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.390521, "excess_performance": 0.219629, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0582, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.191131, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.744098, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186588, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050847, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225433, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.390521, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.800295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86000, "relative_activity": 1.792133, "balance": 0.800295, "dry_up": 1.846835, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080641, "annualized_volatility": 0.410959, "from_high_reference": -0.146032, "from_low_reference": 0.744879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.420522, "fair_value_reference": 15.423449, "structural_low": 19.196075, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.457043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.094276, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-26", "close": 5.907766, "volume": 175500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 5.927525, "volume": 33500, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": 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29.700001, "volume": 132750, "typical_volume": 49162.5, "trend": 24.784006, "fair_value": 15.191515, "relative_strength": 21.593528, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.155003, "energy": 29.298594, "activity_lines": [ 28.886667, 29.309091, 28.33315, 26.963975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.299999, "volume": 82000, "typical_volume": 46150.0, "trend": 25.13057, "fair_value": 15.31518, "relative_strength": 14.239346, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.014498, "energy": 24.207945, "activity_lines": [ 28.54, 29.141818, 28.453303, 27.190813 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.9, "volume": 86000, "typical_volume": 47987.5, "trend": 25.420522, "fair_value": 15.423449, "relative_strength": 5.084677, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.868651, "energy": 19.194855, "activity_lines": [ 27.94, 28.703636, 28.410506, 27.30497 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }