{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4830c3a9-9e6f-4628-9252-f3100c04afee", "symbol": "HUD", "name": "Huddled Group Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -70.845, "architecture_energy": 74.626, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.22, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.35, "rotation_up": 25.6, "upward_expansion": 15.97, "deceleration": 43.08, "rotation_down": 64.91, "downward_expansion": 93.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003673, 0.004311, 0.005735, 0.007723 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.0035, "trend_reference": 0.010787, "distance_from_trend": -0.675525, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.025691, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.863767, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -80.989542, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.805556, "excess_performance": -0.856791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.675525, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.304834, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.863767, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160482, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.809895, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135263, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.805556, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.951196, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11065916, "relative_activity": 1.3308, "balance": 0.951196, "dry_up": 2.75568, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.465275, "annualized_volatility": 0.992353, "from_high_reference": -0.905252, "from_low_reference": 0.166667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.010787, "fair_value_reference": 0.025691, "structural_low": 0.003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.076815, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.633333, "median_excess_return": -0.063457, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.48, "worst_return": -0.305556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.133779, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.154734, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.36, "worst_return": -0.658333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.013699, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.074474, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.32, "worst_return": -0.478261, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"orange", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.34, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.033333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.183333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.123077, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"down", "direction": -78.349682, "energy": 70.137661, "activity_lines": [ 0.005167, 0.005841, 0.00763, 0.009868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0045, "volume": 27423539, "typical_volume": 5588998.0, "trend": 0.012303, "fair_value": 0.02613, "relative_strength": -77.389403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.580161, "energy": 64.931171, "activity_lines": [ 0.00486, 0.005489, 0.007135, 0.009335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.0035, "volume": 32653688, "typical_volume": 7114875.2, "trend": 0.011853, "fair_value": 0.02598, "relative_strength": -82.051307, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.487681, "energy": 79.486681, "activity_lines": [ 0.004287, 0.005024, 0.00661, 0.008767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.0035, "volume": 20513388, "typical_volume": 8125653.75, "trend": 0.01132, "fair_value": 0.025836, "relative_strength": -81.623784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.978349, "energy": 79.194152, "activity_lines": [ 0.003847, 0.004631, 0.006144, 0.008228 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0035, "volume": 11065916, "typical_volume": 8315238.0, "trend": 0.010787, "fair_value": 0.025691, "relative_strength": -80.989542, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.844721, "energy": 74.625828, "activity_lines": [ 0.003673, 0.004311, 0.005735, 0.007723 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }