{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48338637-b975-4f8a-a2ab-eb78b0a94bf2", "symbol": "688678", "name": "Freewon China Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.098, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -22.622, "architecture_energy": 50.941, "architecture_maturity": 6.823, "architecture_confidence": 73.612, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.9, "rotation_up": 17.28, "upward_expansion": 27.65, "deceleration": 47.19, "rotation_down": 65.92, "downward_expansion": 52.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.429334, 18.962909, 20.613688, 20.471091 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.190001, "trend_reference": 19.891895, "distance_from_trend": -0.035285, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.21538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.452096, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.559604, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.174995, "excess_performance": 0.218199, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.035285, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046364, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.452096, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.67801, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015596, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.355617, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.174995, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.247443, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92335622, "relative_activity": 1.049988, "balance": 0.247443, "dry_up": 1.174854, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.183148, "annualized_volatility": 0.745751, "from_high_reference": -0.300146, "from_low_reference": 0.40073 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.891895, "fair_value_reference": 13.21538, "structural_low": 13.7, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.130211, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.078249, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.299646, "worst_return": 0.033684, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.472748, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.39556, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.856653, "worst_return": 0.088842, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.295447, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.19891, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.301542, "worst_return": 0.289352, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.024179, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018105, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065581, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.156444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.295681, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.020759, "energy": 15.504219, "activity_lines": [ 21.992666, 22.339091, 22.198068, 21.197105 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.85, "volume": 154578699, "typical_volume": 88097398.05, "trend": 19.886014, "fair_value": 13.109186, "relative_strength": -3.98563, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -7.773618, "energy": 13.634065, "activity_lines": [ 20.646, 21.399091, 21.869883, 21.067773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.94, "volume": 92579136, "typical_volume": 89392895.9, "trend": 19.876507, "fair_value": 13.135394, "relative_strength": -15.447862, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.647142, "energy": 37.846093, "activity_lines": [ 18.81, 20.262, 21.363007, 20.813192 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.21, "volume": 73772024, "typical_volume": 88538468.75, "trend": 19.826055, "fair_value": 13.160297, "relative_strength": -19.652923, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.2279, "energy": 57.206639, "activity_lines": [ 17.266, 19.162364, 20.792338, 20.512127 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.190001, "volume": 92335622, "typical_volume": 87939734.2, "trend": 19.891895, "fair_value": 13.21538, "relative_strength": -1.559604, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.621639, "energy": 50.941383, "activity_lines": [ 17.429334, 18.962909, 20.613688, 20.471091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }