{ "ticker": { "uuid": "483aecb0-e855-4cbb-8247-f5be85ea657d", "symbol": "TME", "name": "Tencent Music Entertainment Group", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.994, "architecture_energy": 17.005, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 57.496, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.01, "rotation_up": 26.86, "upward_expansion": 25.35, "deceleration": 52.97, "rotation_down": 25.32, "downward_expansion": 52.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.276667, 9.068545, 9.042045, 9.62114 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.53, "trend_reference": 10.936417, "distance_from_trend": -0.128599, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.785242, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.254609, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -44.788368, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.401504, "excess_performance": -0.527129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128599, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214589, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.254609, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013065, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.447884, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087977, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.401504, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.515983, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33667567, "relative_activity": 0.740911, "balance": 1.515983, "dry_up": 0.695248, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076156, "annualized_volatility": 0.561735, "from_high_reference": -0.63373, "from_low_reference": 0.200252 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.936417, "fair_value_reference": 12.785242, "structural_low": 7.94, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.047196, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.05686, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.456919, "worst_return": -0.35411, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.052245, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.140373, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.185379, "worst_return": -0.473124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.058199, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031361, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.992167, "worst_return": -0.504151, "sufficient": true }, { 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.755334, "energy": 52.051386, "activity_lines": [ 8.834667, 8.862545, 9.055784, 10.041419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.86, "volume": 22717314, "typical_volume": 50816182.85, "trend": 11.447483, "fair_value": 12.740149, "relative_strength": -48.152137, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.181921, "energy": 42.040825, "activity_lines": [ 8.871333, 8.863455, 8.990247, 9.856612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.45, "volume": 39632789, "typical_volume": 51242241.55, "trend": 11.182333, "fair_value": 12.76137, "relative_strength": -44.378678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.470519, "energy": 27.5957, "activity_lines": [ 9.096, 8.964545, 9.001913, 9.727742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.53, "volume": 33667567, "typical_volume": 45440749.95, "trend": 10.936417, "fair_value": 12.785242, "relative_strength": -44.788368, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.99371, "energy": 17.004854, "activity_lines": [ 9.276667, 9.068545, 9.042045, 9.62114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }