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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 76.47, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.998, "architecture_energy": 75.506, "architecture_maturity": 15.873, "architecture_confidence": 62.168, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.42, "rotation_up": 77.65, "upward_expansion": 91.66, "deceleration": 42.0, "rotation_down": 9.17, "downward_expansion": 15.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.433333, 39.957874, 39.362202, 39.205394 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 41.0, "trend_reference": 39.106914, "distance_from_trend": 0.048408, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.24466, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.029463, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.125423, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070785, "excess_performance": -0.370587, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048408, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013026, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.029463, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104737, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261254, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120535, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070785, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.019614, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73585, "relative_activity": 0.578461, "balance": 2.019614, "dry_up": 0.663768, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025533, "annualized_volatility": 0.104788, "from_high_reference": -0.057893, "from_low_reference": 0.110043 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.106914, "fair_value_reference": 42.24466, "structural_low": 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"typical_volume": 126674.9, "trend": 38.916431, "fair_value": 42.305086, "relative_strength": -25.311763, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.016069, "energy": 52.606529, "activity_lines": [ 39.729174, 39.428865, 39.018685, 38.974261 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.5, "volume": 80100, "typical_volume": 126529.9, "trend": 39.001005, "fair_value": 42.272999, "relative_strength": -25.397497, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.005483, "energy": 61.536124, "activity_lines": [ 40.037355, 39.668009, 39.169896, 39.076427 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 41.0, "volume": 73585, "typical_volume": 127208.25, "trend": 39.106914, "fair_value": 42.24466, "relative_strength": -26.125423, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.998252, "energy": 75.505587, "activity_lines": [ 40.433333, 39.957874, 39.362202, 39.205394 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }