{ "ticker": { "uuid": "483c59d8-3d02-49af-9326-6a7d27ae862f", "symbol": "601518", "name": "Jilin Expressway Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.208, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.787, "architecture_energy": 23.653, "architecture_maturity": 36.419, "architecture_confidence": 56.759, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.27, "rotation_up": 21.78, "upward_expansion": 13.75, "deceleration": 65.56, "rotation_down": 39.17, "downward_expansion": 63.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.763333, 2.757643, 2.82008, 2.851599 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.76, "trend_reference": 2.877255, "distance_from_trend": -0.040752, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.614319, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.055724, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.953556, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048276, "excess_performance": -0.005072, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.040752, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016883, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.055724, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029536, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048276, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.675952, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 70951418, "relative_activity": 0.897697, "balance": 0.675952, "dry_up": 1.00682, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057056, "annualized_volatility": 0.233303, "from_high_reference": -0.132075, "from_low_reference": 0.045455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.877255, "fair_value_reference": 2.614319, "structural_low": 2.64, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.04926, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.0435, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.070896, "worst_return": 0.028113, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.079111, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.047332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089552, "worst_return": 0.06867, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.218157, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.231334, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.376866, "worst_return": 0.059448, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"2025-01-17", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075188, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.014388, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047163, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.036364, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038194, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013378, "active": false 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"activity_lines": [ 2.734, 2.774466, 2.83782, 2.864513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.8, "volume": 70307320, "typical_volume": 79758354.9, "trend": 2.879255, "fair_value": 2.611718, "relative_strength": 1.050616, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.089335, "energy": 33.604491, "activity_lines": [ 2.758, 2.766873, 2.830259, 2.859292 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.76, "volume": 70951418, "typical_volume": 79037134.6, "trend": 2.877255, "fair_value": 2.614319, "relative_strength": -2.953556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.787109, "energy": 23.65284, "activity_lines": [ 2.763333, 2.757643, 2.82008, 2.851599 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }