{ "ticker": { "uuid": "483ce181-3e87-4c20-a95f-8885a5c7b599", "symbol": "PDGR3", "name": "PDG Realty S.A. Empreendimentos e Participa\u00e7\u00f5es", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 81.832, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.22, "architecture_energy": 45.024, "architecture_maturity": 64.294, "architecture_confidence": 85.379, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.67, "rotation_up": 21.07, "upward_expansion": 6.4, "deceleration": 60.66, "rotation_down": 57.34, "downward_expansion": 82.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.266667, 1.298909, 1.390429, 1.495871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.3, "trend_reference": 1.669333, "distance_from_trend": -0.221246, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10642.926603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.999878, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -81.016124, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.516729, "excess_performance": -0.45968, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.221246, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021684, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.999878, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 5.3e-05, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.810161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130975, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.516729, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.857114, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 846200, "relative_activity": 3.093402, "balance": 2.857114, "dry_up": 1.029885, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150296, "annualized_volatility": 1.110191, "from_high_reference": -0.969048, "from_low_reference": 0.733333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.669333, "fair_value_reference": 10642.926603, "structural_low": 1.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 61, "median_return": -0.122984, "positive_rate": 0.213115, "directional_follow_through": 0.672131, "median_excess_return": -0.127603, "regime_survival": 0.967213, "best_return": 1.069231, "worst_return": -0.9375, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.37931, "positive_rate": 0.105263, "directional_follow_through": 0.894737, "median_excess_return": -0.364201, "regime_survival": 0.947368, "best_return": 0.439189, "worst_return": -0.947143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.856, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.841436, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.306122, "worst_return": -0.947368, "sufficient": true }, 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"volume": 43400, "typical_volume": 254605.0, "trend": 1.677667, "fair_value": 12487.461667, "relative_strength": -86.002557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.779202, "energy": 81.507093, "activity_lines": [ 1.28, 1.336545, 1.432714, 1.548581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.23, "volume": 83100, "typical_volume": 241725.0, "trend": 1.669333, "fair_value": 11570.802885, "relative_strength": -84.521628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.683253, "energy": 71.332298, "activity_lines": [ 1.256667, 1.308909, 1.408048, 1.519699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.3, "volume": 846200, "typical_volume": 273550.0, "trend": 1.669333, "fair_value": 10642.926603, "relative_strength": -81.016124, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.22043, "energy": 45.023724, "activity_lines": [ 1.266667, 1.298909, 1.390429, 1.495871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }