{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48454b6c-9d2e-4a21-9616-e3ef870d6074", "symbol": "HBLENGINE", "name": "HBL ENGINEERING LTD", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.967, "architecture_energy": 47.536, "architecture_maturity": 4.604, "architecture_confidence": 74.738, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.12, "rotation_up": 17.0, "upward_expansion": 26.3, "deceleration": 48.27, "rotation_down": 65.64, "downward_expansion": 51.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 723.716659, 750.914541, 769.139761, 759.74502 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 727.099976, "trend_reference": 751.568205, "distance_from_trend": -0.032556, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 604.036665, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.203735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.886401, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071013, "excess_performance": -0.027303, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032556, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053601, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.203735, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.331454, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.088864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245116, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071013, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.559007, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3782513, "relative_activity": 0.696248, "balance": 1.559007, "dry_up": 0.720261, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071771, "annualized_volatility": 0.328675, "from_high_reference": -0.350288, "from_low_reference": 0.186134 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 751.568205, "fair_value_reference": 604.036665, "structural_low": 613.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.062359, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.031334, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.284896, "worst_return": -0.123893, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.026014, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.012934, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021645, "worst_return": -0.073674, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.014484, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.051488, "worst_return": -0.080456, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-8.948742, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.769594, "energy": 26.425483, "activity_lines": [ 747.953329, 771.844542, 776.436905, 764.549983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 718.700012, "volume": 4326402, "typical_volume": 5492576.45, "trend": 756.531181, "fair_value": 600.792778, "relative_strength": -8.975128, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.465961, "energy": 35.060365, "activity_lines": [ 730.816667, 760.107272, 772.531668, 761.643807 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 727.099976, "volume": 3782513, "typical_volume": 5432712.25, "trend": 751.568205, "fair_value": 604.036665, "relative_strength": -8.886401, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.966555, "energy": 47.535644, "activity_lines": [ 723.716659, 750.914541, 769.139761, 759.74502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }