{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4847dc1d-a97a-4dfd-9f63-86a4ba8e0676", "symbol": "5460", "name": "Mustang Industrial Corp.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 69.978, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.031, "architecture_energy": 15.849, "architecture_maturity": 22.417, "architecture_confidence": 74.277, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.55, "rotation_up": 22.72, "upward_expansion": 50.77, "deceleration": 92.68, "rotation_down": 26.43, "downward_expansion": 16.77 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.06, 16.335454, 15.984047, 15.724408 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 16.1, "trend_reference": 15.515, "distance_from_trend": 0.037705, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.964103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.075908, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.217099, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042071, "excess_performance": -0.399301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.037705, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025672, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.075908, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049974, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.252171, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066137, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042071, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.169011, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 204791, "relative_activity": 0.21482, "balance": 1.169011, "dry_up": 0.367758, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116818, "annualized_volatility": 0.428071, "from_high_reference": -0.240566, "from_low_reference": 0.210526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.515, "fair_value_reference": 14.964103, "structural_low": 13.8, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.004219, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.647059, "median_excess_return": -0.007352, "regime_survival": 0.470588, "best_return": 0.073684, "worst_return": -0.092437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.04379, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.012387, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.34375, "worst_return": -0.058577, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.066689, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.042293, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.265957, "worst_return": -0.10828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.027454, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.099017, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.089965, "worst_return": -0.187943, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030137, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.070081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063694, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049669, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.071661, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.134948, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023569, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.019108, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035484, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003289, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178756, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-14", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 12.75, "volume": 423000, "typical_volume": 1097100.0, "trend": 11.788333, "fair_value": 11.766637, "relative_strength": 1.338397, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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15.346667, "fair_value": 14.85609, "relative_strength": -17.070491, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.59353, "energy": 72.108022, "activity_lines": [ 16.633333, 15.962727, 15.494524, 15.401183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.799999, "volume": 5066103, "typical_volume": 893271.75, "trend": 15.408333, "fair_value": 14.881731, "relative_strength": -24.814957, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.512488, "energy": 62.074374, "activity_lines": [ 16.886666, 16.183636, 15.643095, 15.494946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.799999, "volume": 1667653, "typical_volume": 948547.15, "trend": 15.461667, "fair_value": 14.903846, "relative_strength": -19.452327, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.90888, "energy": 59.651139, "activity_lines": [ 17.023333, 16.371818, 15.785, 15.584731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.1, "volume": 497200, "typical_volume": 943058.8, "trend": 15.475, "fair_value": 14.910577, "relative_strength": -23.807133, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.793518, "energy": 55.481163, "activity_lines": [ 16.796666, 16.400909, 15.854047, 15.625914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.0, "volume": 472021, "typical_volume": 953939.8, "trend": 15.473333, "fair_value": 14.927564, "relative_strength": -22.612984, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.478937, "energy": 24.092362, "activity_lines": [ 16.513333, 16.392727, 15.905238, 15.659785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.85, "volume": 228344, "typical_volume": 953000.35, "trend": 15.475, "fair_value": 14.944231, "relative_strength": -24.486763, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.353505, "energy": 15.094938, "activity_lines": [ 16.13, 16.349091, 15.935238, 15.684086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.1, "volume": 204791, "typical_volume": 953315.2, "trend": 15.515, "fair_value": 14.964103, "relative_strength": -25.217099, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.030793, "energy": 15.848949, "activity_lines": [ 16.06, 16.335454, 15.984047, 15.724408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }