{ "ticker": { "uuid": "48490251-f071-42c8-a684-abeeba2ed75a", "symbol": "VLU", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P 1500 VALUE TILT ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.822, "architecture_energy": 82.113, "architecture_maturity": 41.527, "architecture_confidence": 81.496, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 74.43, "upward_expansion": 93.96, "deceleration": 45.1, "rotation_down": 21.33, "downward_expansion": 15.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 243.91052, 241.845976, 238.195333, 233.940317 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 247.81, "trend_reference": 228.859474, "distance_from_trend": 0.082804, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 185.05232, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.339135, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.328998, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.103251, "excess_performance": -0.022374, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082804, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048517, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.339135, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027831, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.01329, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009664, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.103251, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.017375, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29478, "relative_activity": 0.707505, "balance": 2.017375, "dry_up": 0.678871, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014996, "annualized_volatility": 0.096996, "from_high_reference": -0.00737, "from_low_reference": 0.297949 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 228.859474, "fair_value_reference": 185.05232, "structural_low": 209.83, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.018109, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.006752, "regime_survival": 0.717949, "best_return": 0.06927, "worst_return": -0.104825, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.043906, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.014524, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.081825, "worst_return": -0.065743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.070792, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.004677, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.173051, "worst_return": -0.012022, "sufficient": true }, { 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"up", "direction": 74.798468, "energy": 86.711183, "activity_lines": [ 240.099788, 238.631689, 234.35283, 230.602599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 240.9466, "volume": 27780, "typical_volume": 45544.15, "trend": 226.752502, "fair_value": 183.749263, "relative_strength": 3.327821, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.125653, "energy": 81.792287, "activity_lines": [ 240.672547, 239.323549, 235.462198, 231.58108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 243.3358, "volume": 33323, "typical_volume": 44755.55, "trend": 227.825135, "fair_value": 184.386815, "relative_strength": 3.097473, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.396847, "energy": 82.107083, "activity_lines": [ 241.727713, 240.256167, 236.684635, 232.65097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 247.81, "volume": 29478, "typical_volume": 41664.75, "trend": 228.859474, "fair_value": 185.05232, "relative_strength": 1.328998, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.821593, "energy": 82.113124, "activity_lines": [ 243.91052, 241.845976, 238.195333, 233.940317 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }