{ "ticker": { "uuid": "484bf3cb-5809-4b10-902e-ba84aeff8318", "symbol": "EVMT", "name": "Invesco Electric Vehicle Metals Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.164, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -17.2, "architecture_energy": 21.422, "architecture_maturity": 15.39, "architecture_confidence": 90.261, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.81, "rotation_up": 23.1, "upward_expansion": 20.55, "deceleration": 69.07, "rotation_down": 43.28, "downward_expansion": 34.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.750947, 17.774495, 18.156495, 18.150351 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 17.84, "trend_reference": 18.07754, "distance_from_trend": -0.01314, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.037298, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.186383, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.152203, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.025877, "excess_performance": -0.161577, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01314, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037024, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.186383, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089474, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.071522, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083533, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.025877, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.212745, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11141, "relative_activity": 0.693715, "balance": 0.212745, "dry_up": 0.546594, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030623, "annualized_volatility": 0.132547, "from_high_reference": -0.129756, "from_low_reference": 0.304831 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.07754, "fair_value_reference": 15.037298, "structural_low": 16.92, "invalidation": "A 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.7246, "volume": 4539, "typical_volume": 32938.0, "trend": 18.00935, "fair_value": 15.021604, "relative_strength": -3.892459, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.114176, "energy": 46.252968, "activity_lines": [ 17.652867, 18.030382, 18.304093, 18.207001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.655, "volume": 11540, "typical_volume": 18282.35, "trend": 18.04835, "fair_value": 15.022548, "relative_strength": -2.792753, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.718175, "energy": 53.186998, "activity_lines": [ 17.62756, 17.902025, 18.244141, 18.18414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.76, "volume": 7893, "typical_volume": 17788.25, "trend": 18.075373, "fair_value": 15.027346, "relative_strength": -2.826166, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.976102, "energy": 31.077545, "activity_lines": [ 17.681253, 17.817487, 18.196269, 18.165537 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.84, "volume": 11141, "typical_volume": 16059.9, "trend": 18.07754, "fair_value": 15.037298, "relative_strength": -7.152203, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.199796, "energy": 21.422152, "activity_lines": [ 17.750947, 17.774495, 18.156495, 18.150351 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }