{ "ticker": { "uuid": "484ff7ae-0339-4245-b2ce-8dd5d3cd691c", "symbol": "603966", "name": "Eurocrane (China) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.057, "architecture_energy": 74.403, "architecture_maturity": 18.323, "architecture_confidence": 88.196, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.66, "rotation_up": 10.94, "upward_expansion": 17.25, "deceleration": 37.91, "rotation_down": 71.42, "downward_expansion": 90.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.763333, 8.082, 8.717927, 9.01379 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.92, "trend_reference": 9.362146, "distance_from_trend": -0.15404, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.928132, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143165, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.937255, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.204126, "excess_performance": -0.160922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.15404, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143165, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.442422, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.264077, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.204126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.445751, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30338857, "relative_activity": 0.584917, "balance": 0.445751, "dry_up": 0.687559, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.098422, "annualized_volatility": 0.42554, "from_high_reference": -0.288521, "from_low_reference": 0.1266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.362146, "fair_value_reference": 6.928132, "structural_low": 7.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.03175, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.013581, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.203105, "worst_return": -0.120518, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.089758, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.081431, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.358461, "worst_return": -0.214976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.135044, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.03374, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.250354, "worst_return": -0.35259, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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7.774667, 8.186727, 8.842974, 9.108918 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.92, "volume": 30338857, "typical_volume": 51868693.05, "trend": 9.362146, "fair_value": 6.928132, "relative_strength": -10.937255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.057246, "energy": 74.403368, "activity_lines": [ 7.763333, 8.082, 8.717927, 9.01379 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }